This report is an updated version of the report published on 5 September 2025 at 3:47 PM AEST

Emerald Resources NL (ASX: EMR) 

Emerald Resources NL is an international gold exploration, development, and mining company. EMR operates the Okvau Gold Mine in Cambodia and is focused on unlocking potential at the Dingo Range Gold Project in Western Australia. Committed to sustainable practices, Emerald is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.  

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 4.125

• Technical Standpoint: EMR’s share price has surpassed the R1 level recommended on 26 August 2025. The approx. 14-day RSI is now around 65.97, moving towards overbought territory. This upward move raises the likelihood of short-term consolidation or downside retracement.
• Decline in Gold Production: Gold production decreased to 98,110 ounces in FY25 from 114,076 ounces in FY24, down 14%, reflecting operational challenges.
• Lower Gold Sales: Gold sales fell to 100,534 ounces in FY25 from 115,451 ounces in FY24, a 13% decline, consistent with reduced production.
• Rising Costs: Cost of sales increased to AUD 185,769 in FY25 from AUD 162,095 in FY24, indicating higher unit costs despite lower production volumes.

EMR Daily Price Chart 

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group) 

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a premium to peers given its 16% YoY increase in FY25 gold revenue to AUD 430.4 million versus FY24, a 33% YoY uplift in sale price to USD 2,770/oz, and a 9% increase in profit after tax to AUD 87.6 million in FY25 from AUD 80.7 million in FY24. For conducting the valuation, peers Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM), Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU), and Deterra Royalties Ltd (ASX: DRR) have been considered.

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 4.125, as of 5 September 2025 at 3:20 PM AEST.  

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 5 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices