This report is an updated version of the report published on 28 May 2025 at 3.54 PM AEST.

MAC Copper Limited (ASX: MAC)

MAC is a company dedicated to managing and acquiring metals and mining operations that play a key role in the electrification and decarbonization of the global economy.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 18.670

• Negative Financial Highlights: MAC’s copper production decreased by 23.6% QoQ to 8,644 tonnes in 1QFY25 vs 11,320 tonnes in 4QFY24. Group net debt increased by 13.4% QoQ to USD 150mn as on 31 March 2025 vs USD 132mn as on 31 December 2024.
• Trading Near the Resistance: MAC stock has surpassed its R2 level recommended on 15 April 2025. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, Price/Earnings, Price/Book) are higher than the median of Basic Materials Sector.
• Market Risk: MAC's recent quarterly report highlighted the impact of subdued copper prices on their revenue and cash flow. Any downturn in copper prices would severely impact their financial performance.
• Business Update: MAC has received an offer from Harmony Gold for USD 12.25 cash per share (AUD 18.931 per share) total USD 1.03bn fully diluted. The MAC board unanimously recommends the scheme, supported by key shareholders, and it's subject to limited regulatory approvals and existing contract adjustments.

MAC’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY December'25E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the reduced interest costs, recent acquisition news, and forecasted production in next 2 years. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS), Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), and Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) have been considered.

Considering that the stock has surpassed its R2 level, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of AUD 18.670, as of 28 May 2025, at 3:19 PM AEST.

MAC Copper Limited (ASX: MAC) is currently trading with 0.46mn volumes.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 28 May 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.