NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) 

NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) is an ASX-listed health-related insurance provider in Australia and New Zealand. The company offers a range of health insurance products and services tailored to individuals, families, and corporate clients.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 7.10

• Trading Around Resistance:NHF share price has surpassed its R1 level recommended on 20 June 2025, while the momentum oscillator 14-day RSI is trading around 67.15 level; thus, it can face resistance at the current level.
• Decline in Profitability: Net profit attributable to members decreased significantly by 22%, from AU$106.3 million in the previous corresponding period to AU$82.9 million in 1H25. Similarly, profit from ordinary activities after tax fell by 22% YoY to AU$82.9 million.
• Reduced Interim Dividend:The interim dividend per security was reduced from 15.0 cents in the previous period to 13.0 cents in H1 FY25, indicating a cutback in shareholder returns.
• Slight Decrease in Net Tangible Assets:Net tangible asset backing per ordinary security declined slightly from 103.65 cents as at 30 June 2024 to 102.15 cents as at 31 December 2024, signalling a minor erosion in the company’s net asset value.

Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Jun’26E) (Illustrative)

NHF is expected to trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the 7.7% YoY gain in H1 FY25 revenue, 23.4% YoY jump in H1 FY25 net investment income, and multi-channel distribution strategy. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP), AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB), and Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG).

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 7.10, as of 30 June 2025, at 3:15 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 30 June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 7 May act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 7 May act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.