This report is an updated version of the report published on 22 August 2025 at 8:30 AM AEST.

Vault Minerals Limited (ASX: VAU) 

Vault Minerals Limited (ASX: VAU) is engaged in the exploration, mine development, operations, and sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate in Australia and Canada. The company is underpinned by a long-life asset in the prolific Leonora district, supported by established infrastructure. VAU maintains a disciplined growth strategy focused on low-capex expansion and mine life extensions.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 0.500 

• Technical Standpoint: VAU’s share price has surpassed the R2 level recommended on 19 August 2025. The stock has also surpassed the upper Bollinger Band, indicating an overbought zone. This upward move raises the likelihood of a near-term pullback as profit-taking sets in, increasing the probable risk of short-term consolidation or downside retracement.
• Cost Escalation: In FY25, cost of sales rose to AUD 1,112.4 million from AUD 529.6 million in FY24, reflecting inflationary pressures and weaker operating leverage.
• Leverage Risk: As of 30 June 2025, non-current liabilities increased to AUD 206.0 million from AUD 195.8 million versus pcp, highlighting ongoing balance sheet strain.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month – key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than average of the Basic Materials’ sector.  

Daily Price Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a premium to its peers given its 131% YoY revenue growth in FY25 to AUD 1,432 million, expansion in EBITDA margin to 43% from 31% vpcp, a 161% uplift in operating cash flow to AUD 540.1 million in FY25, and a debt-free balance sheet that provides financial flexibility. For conducting the valuation, following peers have been considered - MAC Copper Ltd (ASX: MAC), Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX: OBM).

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 0.50, as of 22 August 2025 at 3:25 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 22 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.