This report is an updated version of the report published on 11 September 2025 at 3:55 PM AEST.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

NST is a global gold producer with three production centres located in Western Australia and Alaska. The company is committed to organic growth, focusing on targeted exploration programs and investing in operational expansions to maximise efficiency and extend mine life. The company has a portfolio of high-margin underground and open-pit gold mines.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 20.870

• Financial Highlights: NST’s cost of sales increased by 11% YoY to AUD 4,141mn in FY25 vs AUD 3,726.3mn in FY24. This increase was driven by higher mining activity across both underground and open pit operations. The company’s finance cost rose by 15% YoY to AUD 131.9mn in FY25 vs AUD 114.3mn in FY24.
• Trading Near the Resistance: NST’s stock price has surpassed its R2 level recommended on 05 August 2025. Moreover, the 14-day RSI (~75.65) indicates that the stock has entered the overbought zone. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow, Price/Earnings, Price/ Book Value) are higher than Median of the Basic Materials Sector.
• Market Risk: Changes in mining, environmental, or community regulations in jurisdictions where NST operates may increase costs, impact operating parameters, or delay projects.

NST’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the YoY growth in revenue in FY25, YoY increase in EBITDA & net income in FY25 and expected gold production in FY26. For conducting the valuation, the following peers - Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Deterra Royalties Ltd (ASX: DRR), and other have been considered.

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 20.870, as of 11 September 2025 at 3:40 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 11 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.