This report is an updated version of the report published on 23 September 2025 at 12:37 PM AEST.

Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX: KCN) 

Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX: KCN) is an Australian gold and silver producer, known for its Chatree Gold Mine in Thailand and the Nueva Esperanza Gold-Silver Project in Chile's Maricunga Belt. With extensive experience in gold exploration, development, and mining, Kingsgate is a key player in the Pacific Rim region. The company focuses on advancing its portfolio of high-quality, high-potential gold and silver assets.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 3.600  

• Technical Standpoint: KCN’s share price has surpassed the R2 level recommended on 16 September 2025. The approx. 14-day RSI is now around 73.50, entering in overbought territory. This upward move raises the likelihood of a near-term pullback as profit-taking sets in, increasing the probable risk of short-term consolidation.
• Profitability Concerns: While FY25 revenue surged to AU$336.7 million (vs AU$133.1 million prior year), net income fell sharply to AU$29.5 million from AU$199.8 million. The drop in profitability is attributed to a significant increase in costs—possibly due to operational restarts, higher input costs, and non-operational items in cost structure.
• Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: The Chatree mine is located in Thailand, an emerging market exposed to regulatory, legal, and political instability. Historically, KCN’s operations were suspended in 2016 by the Thai government, resulting in lost production and protracted arbitration; although government relations have improved, recurring policy risk remains a significant concern.
• Overreliance on a Single Asset: KCN’s revenue and production are nearly entirely dependent on the Chatree mine. This single-asset exposure means that operational disruptions, permitting delays, or local challenges (environmental, social, or regulatory) could have an outsized impact on the company’s overall performance.

Daily Price Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Jun'26E) (Illustrative)

KCN’s can trade at a premium considering the FY26 gold production guidance at its flagship Chatree mine, recent addition to the S&P/ASX 300 indices, 258% YoY increase in FY25 end available cash and bullion level, and exploration momentum. For conducting the valuation, following peers have been considered - Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK), Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR), and Fenix Resources Ltd (ASX: FEX).

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 3.60, as of 23 September 2025 at 11:30 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 23 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.