This report is an updated version of the report published on 21 October 2025 at 9:00 AM AEDT.

Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD)

Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX: GMD) is engaged in gold mining, project development and exploration activities in the Leonora region of Western Australia. The company is primarily focused on the prolific Leonora District.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 6.570

• Trading Around Resistance: GMD experienced a substantial gain of approximately 78.05% since our last coverage on 1 August 2025. Given this strong price performance and potential short-term weakness, it would be prudent to consider selling and reducing exposure to mitigate risks amid prevailing market uncertainties at these elevated levels.
• Valuation Stretch: After a sharp rally, GMD now trades at above-industry P/E multiples, implying much of the future growth is already priced in. 
• Cost Inflation and High AISC: Despite record production, the company’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) remained elevated at AU$2,398/oz, sitting at the upper end of its FY25 guidance. Rising input costs, energy inflation, and contractor charges have muted operational leverage despite strong gold prices.
• Single-Asset Concentration and Ramp-Up Risk: GMD has concentrated exposure to the Gwalia operation, with new mine development (Admiral, Ulysses) still in early ramp-up stages. Any underperformance or delay there could significantly hit financials. 
• Integration Overhang from Laverton Acquisition: The AU$250 million acquisition of Focus Minerals’ Laverton project raises integration and capital allocation risks. While strategic, it strains cash flow flexibility and adds pressure to optimize multiple new deposits concurrently.
• Weaker Institutional Participation and Liquidity Constraints: ESG restrictions and reduced institutional participation have led to thin trading volumes and higher volatility across mid-tier ASX gold producers, amplifying price swings during sector rotation or risk-off sentiment.

Daily Price Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the closing market price of AUD 6.570, as of 20 October 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 20 October 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.