This report is an updated version of the report published on 19 November 2025 at 3:51 PM AEDT

 Bega Cheese Limited (ASX: BGA)

Bega Cheese Limited is an Australia-based company engaged in receiving, processing, manufacturing, and distributing dairy and other food-related products. It operates in two segments: Branded, and Bulk. 

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 5.99

• Technical Standpoint: BGA’s share price has surpassed the R1 level of AUD 5.724 recommended on 10 July 2025. The 14-day RSI is now around 73.71, trading in overbought territory, hence the stock may witness some consolidation in the near term.
• Negative Bottom-line: In FY25, BGA reported a net loss attributable to owners of AUD 8.5 million, compared with a net profit of AUD 30.5 million in FY24.

• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/EBITDA) and (Price/Earning) are higher than industry (Food and Tobacco) average.

• Retail and Private-label Competition: Major supermarkets exert pricing pressure, and private-label products compete directly with BGA’s branded portfolio, potentially squeezing margins.

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the increase in statutory revenue to AUD 3,539.0 million in FY25 from AUD 3,521.6 million in FY24 and the improvement in operating cash inflow to AUD 165.0 million in FY25 versus AUD 134.3 million in pcp, supported by stable momentum in the Branded segment and the return to profit in the Bulk segment, among other factors.

For conducting the valuation, peers including GrainCorp Ltd (ASX:GNC), Elders Ltd (ASX:ELD) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) have been considered.

Given the stock has crossed its R1 level, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 5.99, as of 19 November 2025, at 3:21 PM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 19 November 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices