This report is an updated version of the report published on 1 May 2025 at 1:16 PM AEST.

FleetPartners Group Ltd (ASX: FPR)

FleetPartners Group Ltd (ASX: FPR) provides vehicle leasing, fleet management, heavy commercial vehicles, salary packaging and novated leasing, to companies across Australia and New Zealand. Its segments include Australia Commercial, Novated and New Zealand Commercial.

On 12 May 2025, FPR expects to release its H1 FY25 results.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 2.840

• Surpassed Resistance: FPR has surpassed the ‘Resistance 1’ level recommended on 8 April 2025. Therefore, FPR can face resistance at the current levels.
• Decline in EOL Income: End of Lease (EOL) income decreased 4% in FY24 compared to FY23, and the average EOL per vehicle dropped by 19% year-on-year, suggesting that the tailwind from elevated used car prices is fading.
• Challenging Economic Environment in Key Markets: The order pipeline in New Zealand shrank from 3.7x to 2.4x, indicating a weaker outlook for future growth in that segment.
• Cost Pressures: Operating expenses rose 6% YoY in FY24, driven by inflation and higher activity levels, outpacing revenue growth in some areas and putting further pressure on margins.

Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Sep'26E) (Illustrative)

FPR is expected to trade at a slight discount to its peers considering the cost pressures, decrease EOL income, and increased operating expenses in FY24. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: Plenti Group Ltd (ASX: PLT), Moneyme Ltd (ASX: MME), and Credit Corp Group Ltd (ASX: CCP).

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.840, as of 1 May 2025, at 12:35 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 1 May 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.