This report is an updated version of the report published on 19 May 2025 at 1:22 PM AEST.

OFX Group Ltd (ASX: OFX) 

OFX Group Limited (ASX: OFX) is a cross-border payments specialist with a presence in nine countries. The Sydney-based company provides money transfers and foreign exchange services across more than 50 currencies to corporate, consumer and enterprise clients. 

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 1.335 

• Surpassed Resistance: OFX has surpassed the ‘Resistance 2’ level recommended on 17 April 2025. Therefore, OFX can face resistance at the current levels.
• Technical Standpoint: The momentum oscillator 14-day RSI (~69.66) had nearly entered the overbought zone; and thus, share price could face resistance in the short term.
• Disappointing Full-Year Financial Results: On 20 May 2025, OFX reported FY25 results showing a 3.4% decline in revenue to AUD 221.9 million and an 18.2% fall in underlying net profit to AUD 27.7 million compared to the previous year. Net income also dropped from AUD 31.3 million in FY24 to AUD 24.86 million in FY25. Earnings per share declined accordingly.
• Challenging Macroeconomic and Market Conditions: The Company cited slower-than-expected recovery in corporate confidence due to shifts in interest rate cycles and a strong USD, which suppressed client trading volumes and fee income, especially in key markets like the UK and Canada. Consumer confidence remained subdued, impacting transaction volumes.

Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Approach (FY Mar'26E) (Illustrative)

OFX is expected to trade at a slight discount to its peers considering the financial decline in FY25, subdued transaction volumes, and withdrawal of its net operating income guidance for FY26. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: Pioneer Credit Ltd (ASX: PNC), Earlypay Ltd (ASX: EPY), and Helia Group Ltd (ASX: HLI).

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 1.335, as of 19 May 2025, at 12:30 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 19 May 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 7 May act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 7 May act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.