This report is an updated version of the report published on 19 February 2025 at 11:20 AM AEDT.

Navigator Global Investments Limited (ASX:NGI)  

Navigator Global Investments Limited (ASX:NGI) focuses on investing in a diversified portfolio of alternative asset management companies by partnering with management teams worldwide. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Lighthouse Investment Partners, LLC, NGI provides investment management products and services globally, while holding minority interest investments that enhance its broader business strategy.   

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 1.890

• Trading Around Resistance: NGI’s share price surpassed its R2 level recommended on 9 January 2025. Its 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a reading of ~68.12, which indicates the stock is approaching overbought zone and may face resistance before moving higher.
• Decline in Cash Generated from Operations – Cash generated from operations went down by 11% YoY from USD 21.5mn at 31 December 2023 to USD 19.2mn at 31 December 2024. At the end of December 2024, cash in hand declined by 21% YoY.
• Decline in Net Distributions from NGI Strategic: NGI reported a 26% YoY decline in net distributions from NGI Strategic to USD 16.6mn for 1HFY25 from USD 22.4mn for 1HFY24.
• Risks – NGI is exposed to risks such as market volatility, fluctuating asset values, dependence on global economic conditions, regulatory changes, and potential challenges in effectively managing investment strategies across diverse markets.

NGI Daily Price Chart

NGI Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Book Value Approach (FY June'25E) (Illustrative)

NGI is expected to trade at a slight premium to its peers considering increase in adjusted EBITDA in 1HFY25, growing free cash flows, among other factors. For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Fleetpartners Group Ltd (ASX: FPR), Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL), Pacific Current Group Ltd (ASX: PAC), and others. 

Considering that the stock has crossed its R2 level, rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 1.890, as of 19 February 2025, at 10:20 AM AEDT.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 19 February 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.