This report is an updated version of the report published on 8 July 2025 at 1:23 PM AEST.  

AMP Limited (ASX: AMP)

AMP Limited is an Australia-based company, which provides banking, superannuation, retirement and financial advice services in Australia and New Zealand. Its businesses include AMP’s Platforms, AMP Bank, AMP’s Master Trust, AMP Advice, and AMP New Zealand Wealth Management, which provides general insurance products.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 1.438

• Trading Around Resistance: AMP shares have first resistance (R1) of AUD 1.390. However, its 14-day RSI is showing a reading of ~80.69, indicating that the stock is in overbought zone; hence, it may face some consolidation before scaling further upside.
• AMP Bank Revenue, NPAT Declined: In FY24 ended 31 December 2024, AMP’s total revenue declined 1.1% annually to AUD 1,252mn. This decline was led by lower net interest income in AMP Bank reflecting margin compression and constrained growth. NPAT of AMP Bank declined by 22.6% year-on-year to AUD 72 million, 31% of group NPAT.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than median of the Financials sector.
• Market and Investment Risk: As a financial services firm, AMP’s profitability is highly sensitive to market movements, including interest rates, equity prices, and investment returns. Volatility can impact AMP Bank margins and fund management performance.

AMP Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Book Value Approach (FY Dec'25E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the reduction in variable and controllable costs in FY24, increase in EBIT and underlying NPAT and increase in platform cashflows in Q1FY25.

For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: Pepper Money Ltd (ASX: PPM), Liberty Group (ASX: LFG), Resimac Group Ltd (ASX: RMC) and others.

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 1.438, as of 8 July 2025 at 12:50 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 8 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.