This report is an updated version of the report published on 10 July 2025 at 11:56 AM AEST.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) is a diversified Australian global financial services company. It operates across multiple sectors including asset management, banking, advisory, risk and capital solutions, and commodities. 

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 225.56

• Likely to Face Resistance: MQG has surpassed the R1 level recommended on 12 May 2025, and it can face resistance as broad market weakness puts pressure on stocks.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (Price/Book, Price/Earnings, EV/Sales, and EV/EBITDA) are higher than median of the Financials sector.
• Market-facing businesses under pressure: While Macquarie’s annuity-style businesses (like asset management and banking) showed profit growth, the markets-facing businesses, particularly Commodities and Global Markets (CGM), experienced a decline in net profit contribution in (FY25 vs FY24) due to subdued commodity markets and lower client hedging activity. This could signal near-term earnings volatility.
• Potential macroeconomic and market risks: Ongoing economic uncertainty, commodity price volatility, and regulatory pressures remain risks that could impact Macquarie’s earnings and share price stability.

MQG Daily Chart

 (Source: REFINTIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Valuation Methodology: Price/Book Value Approach (FY Mar'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the 7% and 2% YoY increase in FY25 Basic EPS and Dividend per share, respectively; and multi-asset strategies outperforming their respective 3-year benchmarks.

For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN), QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE), and COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX: COG).

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to escape the uncertainties at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 225.56, as of 10 July 2025 at 11:35 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 10 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.