This report is an updated version of the report published on 16 June 2025 at 11:40 AM AEST.

Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA)

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA) is an Australian energy company operating across three core segments: Convenience & Mobility, Commercial & Industrial, and Energy & Infrastructure.

Recommendation Rationale - SELL at AUD 2.11

• Surpassed Resistance: VEA is trading around the ‘Resistance 2’ level recommended on 7 May 2025. Therefore, VEA can face resistance at the current levels.
• Technical Standpoint: A 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 69.55 indicates that VEA is currently trading around the overbought condition. This suggests the stock has experienced strong recent buying momentum, and a potential price pullback or consolidation could be imminent as traders may start booking profits or waiting for a correction before entering new positions.
• Oil Price Volatility and Geopolitical Risk:The current oil price spike is largely driven by geopolitical uncertainty, which can be volatile and unpredictable. 
• Weak Refining Margins and Operational Disruptions: The Geelong Refinery’s refining margin was marginally above break-even at US$7.9 per barrel in Q1 2025, down from US$12.0 per barrel in the prior year quarter, impacted by a site-wide shut down due to a power outage and higher energy costs. Lower refining margins pressure earnings and cash flow.

Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY Dec’25E) (Illustrative)

VEA is expected to trade at a slight premium to its peers, on the back of expansion of OTR network, expected EBITDA (RC) in FY25, and acquisition of Liberty Convenience. For conducting valuation, the following peers have been considered: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), and Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) have been considered.

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.11, as of 16 June 2025, at 10:40 AM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 16 June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 7 May act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 7 May act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.