This report is an updated version of the report published on 30 September 2025 at 12:12 PM AEST.

IDP Education Limited (ASX: IEL)

 IEL is engaged in the placement of international students into educational institutions in Australia, the UK, the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Ireland. 

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 6.670 

• Financial Highlights: Total revenue declined by 15% YoY to AUD 882.2mn in FY25, down from AUD 1,037.2mn in FY24, primarily due to decreased volumes in student placements and English language testing. Net profit after tax (NPAT) fell by 66% YoY to AUD 45.5mn in FY25, compared to AUD 133.5mn in the previous year.
• Trading Near the Resistance: IEL’s share price is approaching its R2 level, recommended on 18 September 2025. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow, Price/Book) are higher than Industry median of the Academic & Educational Services sector.
• Market Risk: Changes in immigration policies, visa requirements, student intake caps, or more restrictive regulations in key destination countries (such as Australia, the UK, Canada, and the US) can significantly reduce demand for international education and English language testing. These regulatory shifts have already contributed to declining volumes in student placements and IELTS tests across several markets. A weakening student pipeline and lower conversion rates directly impact revenue and growth prospects.

IEL’s Daily Price Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight discount to its peers considering the YoY decrease in total revenue in FY25, lower NPAT in FY25, fell in student placement volumes, downward revision of guidance, etc. For valuation, few peers including, 3P Learning Ltd (ASX: 3PL), G8 Education Ltd (ASX: GEM), Embark Early Education Ltd (ASX: EVO), and others have been considered.

Considering that the stock is trading close to its R2 level, macroeconomic uncertainty, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 6.67, at 11:33 AM AEST, as of 30 September 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 30 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided have been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.