This report is an updated version of the report published on 28 August 2025 at 12:18 PM AEST.

IDP Education Limited (ASX: IEL)  

IDP Education Limited (ASX: IEL) is engaged in the placement of international students into educational institutions in Australia, the UK, the US, Canada, New Zealand, and Ireland. BCAL Diagnostics Limited (ASX: BDX) is an Australia-based biotechnology company involved in diagnosis and monitoring of breast cancer and development of blood screening tests for breast cancer screening methods.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 6.145

• Technical Standpoint: IEL's share price surpassed its R2 level as recommended on 7 August 2025. Also, the momentum oscillatory (14-day RSI is around 78.4 level), indicating that the stock is approaching overbought territory. This shows increasing the likelihood of near-term consolidation or technical pullback.

• Overvalued Multiples: On a Trailing 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E and P/CF) are higher than the median of the Professional & Business Education industry.
• Financial Performance: In FY25, the company reported revenue of AUD 882.2 million, a decline of ~14% YoY, primarily driven by reduced volumes across key segments. Student Placement volumes dropped by 29%, and Language Testing volumes fell by 18%. Profit for the year declined 66% YoY. The industry continues to face challenging conditions, with FY26 market volumes projected to decline by 20% to 30% compared to FY25.
• Emerging Risks: The company faces risks from declining student placement and English language testing volumes, driven by changing international education policies and reduced demand in key markets. Currency fluctuations, regulatory shifts, and increasing competition also pose challenges.

IEL Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: P/E Approach (FY June'26E) (Illustrative)

Considering that the stock has surpassed it R2 level, macroeconomic uncertainty, share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 6:145, at 11:42 AM AEST, as of 28 August 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 28 August 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.