This report is an updated version of the report published on 19 September 2025 at 3:21 PM AEST.

Stanmore Resources Limited (ASX: SMR)  

Stanmore Resources Limited is an Australian-based mining company primarily focused on the production and sale of metallurgical coal, a critical raw material for steelmaking. The company's operations include open-cut and underground coal mines, with a portfolio comprising high-quality coking and thermal coal assets.  

 Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.020

• Technical Standpoint: SMR’s share price has surpassed the R2 level of AUD 2.095 recommended on 11 September 2025. This upward move raises the likelihood of short-term consolidation or downside retracement.
• Revenue Decline: Revenue from ordinary activities fell 29% to USD 867.2 million in H1 FY25 from USD 1,226.0 million in H1 FY24.
• Earnings Reversal: The company reported a net loss of USD 50.5 million in H1 FY25 compared with a net profit of USD 136.3 million in H1 FY24, highlighting deterioration in profitability.
• Lower Coal Sales: Revenue from coal sales dropped 34% year-on-year in H1 FY25, driven by a 25% reduction in average sales price and 436Kt lower sales volumes versus H1 FY24.

SMR Daily Price Chart 

(Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group) 

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Approach (FY December'26E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a premium to peers given operational improvements from higher ROM production at Poitrel, growth prospects through acquisitions, non-current borrowings declining to USD 204.6 million at the end of H1 FY25 from USD 238.1 million versus pcp, and capital expenditure returning to normalised levels after a growth program.

For conducting the valuation, peers Macmahon Holdings Ltd (ASX: MAH), Agrimin Ltd (ASX: AMN), and Pacific Lime and Cement Ltd (ASX: PLA) have been considered.

Given its current trading levels, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.020, as of 19 September 2025 at 2:55 PM AEST. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 19 September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices