This report is an updated version of the report published on 1 July 2025 at 3:55 PM AEST.

GQG Partners Inc. (ASX: GQG)

GQG Partners Inc. is a global boutique asset management firm focused on active equity portfolios. Headquartered in the United States, the firm has built a client base with many prominent institutions and wholesale platforms around the world.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 2.340

• Trading Around Resistance: GQG’s share price has crossed its first resistance (R1) of AUD 2.332 recommended on 3 June 2025. However, its 14-day RSI is showing a reading of ~65.01; hence, the stock may face some consolidation before scaling further upside.
• High Exposure to Adani Group: GQG holds nearly 20% stake across multiple Adani Group companies. U.S. bribery and fraud indictments against Adani executives led to sudden market turbulence, leading to 20% decline in GQG shares and ~USD 600 million in outflows in just a few days.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month basis - key valuation multiples (EV/Sales and P/B) are higher than median of the Investment Banking & Investment Services industry.
• Highly Concentrated Insider Ownership: GQG's founders and insiders hold ~70–74% of the company. While this aligns management with shareholders, it also concentrates decision-making power and raises potential governance concerns.

GQG Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Book Value Approach (FY December'25E) (Illustrative)

The stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers, considering the increase in April and May 2025 FUM, net inflows of USD 7.4 bn in the year till 31 May 2025, FY24 management fees and performance fees, competitive fee structure.

For conducting the valuation, the following peers have been considered: COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX: COG), Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI), Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) and others have been considered.

Considering the rally in share price movement, current trading level, and risks associated, the share price can witness resistance at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 2.340, as of 1 July 2025, at 3:12 PM AEST.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 1 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.    

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.