Virgin Money UK PLC (ASX: VUK)

Virgin Money UK PLC is a tier 1 bank with around 6.6 million retail and business customers. It has a dual listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at AUD 4.08

• Potential Acquisition: On 7 March 2024, Virgin Money UK PLC and Nationwide Building Society announced that they have reached preliminary agreement on a potential cash acquisition of Virgin Money by Nationwide, under which Virgin Money Shareholders would be entitled to receive a total value of 220 pence in cash for each Virgin Money ordinary share. The value 220 pence comprised of 218 pence per Virgin Money Share in cash consideration and a proposed dividend of 2 pence per Virgin Money Share. In addition to the total value of 220 pence per Virgin Money Share, eligible Virgin Money Shareholders would continue to be entitled to receive and retain the final dividend of 2 pence per Virgin Money Share in respect of FY2023, which will be paid on 20 March 2024. The consideration price of 220 pence, represented a premium of 38% to Virgin Money’s undisturbed share price as of 6 March 2024.
• Suspension of Buyback Programme: Post receiving the potential cash acquisition by Nationwide Building Society, VUK has suspended the £150 million Buyback Programme that was announced in November 2023 with immediate effect.
• Profit Booking: VUK’s share price has breached the Resistance 2 recommended on 19 February 2024, and offered a profit booking opportunity.
• Technical Standpoint: The momentum oscillator, 14-day RSI (~87) indicates the overbought zone; thus, price can face correction in the short term.

VUK Daily Chart

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

Given the potential acquisition, uncertainties around the business continuity, recent rally in the share price, it is prudent to book profit at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current market price of AUD 4.08, at 1:01 PM AEDT, as of 8 March 2024.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is VUKdent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 8 March 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer

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