What Lies Ahead for NZ’s Financials Sector - 2 Stocks to Consider

This report is an updated version of the report published on 5:56 PM (GMT +13) as on 27 November 2025

Overview:

Marlin Global Limited (NZX: MLN) is a listed investment company that invests in growing companies based outside of New Zealand and Australia. General Capital Limited (NZX: GEN) is a New Zealand-based financial services company.

Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Sector Landscape and Outlook

As per RBNZ’s release dated 26 November 2025, the annual consumers price inflation rose to 3% in the quarter ended September. However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is projected to decline to ~2% by mid-2026. The economic activity remained weak over mid-2025, however, it is now picking up. Notably, reduced interest rates have been encouraging the household spending, and labour market continues to stabilise. The exchange rate has declined, helping the income of exporters.

The risks to the inflation outlook remain balanced. Furthermore, increased caution by households and businesses might slow the pace of NZ’s economic recovery. However, the recovery might be faster and stronger than anticipated if the domestic demand proves more responsive to the reduced rates. The release highlighted that non-performing housing loans have declined, and banks project further reductions in housing and commercial property impairments over 2026. The Committee reduced the OCR by 25 bps to 2.25%.  

Exhibit 1: OCR (%)

Data Source: This work is based on/includes rbnz data which are licensed by rbnz.govt.nz for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Note: The above chart depicts Official Cash Rate (OCR), which is updated at end of month

Credit Card Summary (October 2025)

RBNZ released data about credit card summary (for October 2025), with seasonally adjusted total billings in NZ coming at $4.5 Bn in October 2025. Annually, this reflects a rise of 1.4% from October 2024. The seasonally adjusted domestic billings on NZ issued cards amounted to $3.9 Bn in October 2025, reflecting a rise of 1.1% from September 2025, and up by 2.2% from October 2024.

The overseas billings on New Zealand issued cards amounted to $733.3 Mn in October 2025, reflecting a fall of 5.5% from September 2025. Annually, there has been a rise of 0.6% from October 2024. Total credit limits were at $21.0 Bn (not seasonally adjusted) in October 2025.

Exhibit 2: Total Advances Outstanding

Data Source: This work is based on/includes rbnz data which are licensed by rbnz.govt.nz for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Trends in Broader NZ Economy

As per the RBNZ, relative weakness in the labour market over the previous 2 years resulted in increased outward migration from New Zealand, mainly to Australia. That being said, regional disparities in housing as well as labour markets have also likely led to the increased internal migration. With respect to the housing, RBNZ stated that house prices, in aggregate, were stable to date even though the mortgage interest rates have decreased and there has been a modest pick-up in broader housing market activity.

Key Risks and Challenges:

As per RBNZ, the global growth is anticipated to slow modestly in 2026. This showcases an expected weakening in global export demand as the pace of AI investment slows down. Furthermore, the Committee anticipates that trade barriers would weigh on global economic activity as well as there might be a modest disinflationary effect on NZ.

Exhibit 3. Key Risks in Financial Sector:

Source: Analysis by Kalkine Group

Outlook:

As per RBNZ, significant spare capacity is there in the economy and inflation is anticipated to decline to ~2% by mid-2026. The significant reduction in the OCR since the month of August 2024 is anticipated to help a recovery in economic activity. The Committee also discussed the easing of domestic financial conditions. Notably, wholesale interest rates declined, and New Zealand dollar Trade Weighted Index depreciated since August. Also, the cuts to OCR have reduced borrowing costs and mortgage rates. 

The Committee highlighted that there are some early signs of stabilisation in labour demand as job vacancies and total hours worked rose in the September quarter. Notably, this is expected to broaden into the wider improvement in labour market conditions over the upcoming quarters, which would help household confidence and spending.

Apart from the sector-specific factors, an analysis on 2 NZX-listed companies is provided. This report covers their insights, outlook, performance and potential as expected to be delivered in the near to medium term.

1) Marlin Global Limited (Recommendation: Buy, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 211.9 million, Annual Dividend Yield (TTM)¹: 9.10%)

Business Description:

Marlin Global Limited (NZX: MLN) is a listed investment company which invests in growing companies based outside of NZ and Australia. 

Outlook:

MLN stated that October month was broadly positive for global equity performance amid an evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop as well as a strong US earnings season. The focus towards quality, growth-oriented businesses is the cornerstone of the portfolio’s investment strategy, making sure that the portfolio is made up of companies possessing clearly identified competitive advantages.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary

While undergoing a correction from the upper boundary of a trading range, MLN’s stock price is forming a bottom divergence in relation to the relative strength indicator, anticipating a potential minor rally. Additionally, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is reversing near its oversold territory, adding more evidence to the mentioned recommendation. Price is trading between its previous peak and trough, which might serve as resistance and support levels for the stock, respectively. A significant support level is located at NZD 0.86, while a key resistance level is positioned at NZD 1.03.

Stock Recommendation

Considering the facts above, a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stock has been provided at the current market price of NZD 0.94 per share (New Zealand Time: 1:00 (GMT +13)) as on 27th November 2025.

2) General Capital Limited (Recommendation: Hold, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 29.3 Mn, Annual Dividend Yield (TTM)¹: ~4.28%)

Business Description:

General Capital Limited (NZX: GEN) is a New Zealand-based financial services company.

Outlook:

GEN’s focus would be towards continuing to grow the loan book, managing the net interest margins as well as growth of other areas of the Group such as insurance premium funding and advisory from subsidiary Investment Research Group.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary

On the daily chart, GEN’s stock price is developing an Inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating a positive bias. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is heading north from its midpoint, providing further support to the previous observation. Prices are trading above both 21-day and 50-day SMAs, which might function as dynamic support levels for the stock; in contrast, the stock’s most recent high may act as a resistance level. A significant support level for the stock is positioned at NZD 0.295, while critical resistance level is located at NZD 0.35

Stock Recommendation

Considering the facts above, a ‘Hold’ recommendation on the stock has been provided at the current market price of NZD 0.32 per share (New Zealand Time: 1:00 (GMT +13)) as on 27th November 2025.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 27, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4:  Annual Dividend Yield is on a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM¹) basis and are subject to change based on factors such as company performance, stock price changes, etc.

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.