Viva Energy Group Ltd

This report is an updated version of the report published on 12 February 2025 at 12:15 PM AEDT.

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights

Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA) is an Australian company with over 120 years of history, specializing in convenience retail, commercial services, and energy infrastructure. The company operates a network of nearly 900 retail convenience and fuel stores across Australia and supplies fuels and lubricants to approximately 1,500 service stations. Viva Energy also owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria and runs various bulk fuels, aviation, bitumen, marine, chemicals, polymers, and lubricants businesses, supported by more than 20 terminals and 79 airports and airfields nationwide. Kalkine’s Resources Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

1.2 The Key Positives & Negatives; Investment Highlights; and Insights from Management:

1.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~58.15% of the total shareholding. VIP Energy Australia BV and L1 Capital Pty Ltd are holding maximum stakes in the company at ~28.95% and ~6.54%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics: VEA upheld safety standards while expanding operations and increasing its workforce to nearly 15,000 employees in H1 FY24. Below are captured some metrics:

Section 2: Business Updates, Financial and Operational Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates:

2.2 Results Highlights: Below mentioned are some key financial highlights:   

2.3 Historical Financial Trend

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary

The stock price has decreased by around 10.11% in 1 month; and in the past 6 months, prices have been corrected around 23.57%. The stock has a 52-week high and 52-week low of AUD 3.865 and AUD 2.400, respectively. VEA was previously covered in a report dated ’8 January 2025’.

 (Source: REFINITIV, Analysis by Kalkine Group)

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Cash Flow Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 12 February 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.