October 2025 CPI Data Bode Well for Consumer Discretionary and Food Sectors

This report is an updated version of the report published on 4 December 2025 at 12:32 PM AEDT 

Company Overview

Company Overview: Bapcor Limited (ASX: BAP) is an Australia based company that supplies automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, equipment, services, and solutions. There are four segments within the company. SPC Global Holdings Ltd (ASX: SPG), formerly The Original Juice Co. Ltd, is an Australia-based global food and beverage company. Its product categories include packaged tomatoes, packaged fruit, frozen meals and snacks, beverages, powdered milk, pulses, frozen fruit and vegetables, shelf staple meals and snacks, and recipe bases/sauces and stocks. Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Investment Summary, Sector Overview & Supporting Catalysts, Data Insights & Analysis, Financial Metrics, Financial Commentary, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on selected stocks.

Investment Summary

Sector Overview and Supporting Drivers

Australia’s consumer discretionary sector comprises businesses that rely on non-essential spending, including retail, autos, hospitality, leisure, entertainment and e-commerce. The sector is highly sensitive to shifts in consumer confidence, interest rates and real wage growth, making it a key barometer of household financial conditions. Elevated living costs and higher borrowing rates have recently constrained big-ticket purchases, though population growth and resilient employment continue to provide underlying support. Ongoing digital transformation, omnichannel retailing and product innovation are reshaping competitive dynamics. As inflation moderates and monetary policy eventually eases, the sector stands to benefit from improved household purchasing power and recovering sentiment.

Australia’s food sector spans agriculture, processing, manufacturing, and retail, forming a critical pillar of the national economy and export market. The sector benefits from strong global demand for high-quality produce, particularly in Asia, while domestic consumption continues to grow with population expansion and shifting dietary preferences. The sector faces ongoing challenges from climate variability, biosecurity risks, rising input costs and tight supermarket competition. However, innovation in healthier, sustainable and value-added food products, alongside investment in automation and improved supply chains, is enhancing efficiency and resilience. Government support for agriculture and advanced food manufacturing further strengthens long-term growth prospects.

Sector Catalysts

Index Performance

Investment theme and stocks under discussion (BAP, SPG)

After understanding the sector, let us now look at two companies from the consumer discretionary and food sector listed on the ASX. The price potential of the companies under discussion have been analysed based on Price/Earnings and Price/Cash Flow Per Share based relative valuation methods, respectively.

1. ASX: BAP (Bapcor Limited)

(Recommendation: ‘Speculative Buy’ at AUD 2.290; Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit; MCap: AUD 790.83mn)

BAP is an Australia based company that supplies automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, equipment, services, and solutions. There are four segments within the company.

The stock has corrected ~5.37% in last one month, and over the past six months, it has declined by ~55.36%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 2.140 and AUD 5.470, respectively and is currently trading close to the 52-week low level. BAP was last covered in a report dated ‘30 October 2025’.

2. ASX: SPG (SPC Global Holdings Ltd)

(Recommendation: ‘Speculative Buy’ at AUD 0.370; Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit; MCap: AUD 71.40mn)

SPC Global Holdings Ltd, formerly The Original Juice Co. Ltd, is an Australia-based global food and beverage company. Its product categories include packaged tomatoes, packaged fruit, frozen meals and snacks, beverages, powdered milk, pulses, frozen fruit and vegetables, shelf staple meals and snacks, and recipe bases/sauces and stocks.

The stock has witnessed a decline of ~9.76% in last one month, and over the past six months, it has increased by ~23.33%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 0.285 and AUD 1.545, respectively and is currently trading close to its 52-week low level.  SPG was last covered in a report dated ‘6 November 2025’.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 4 December 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An ‘Exit’ from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.