Mixed Performance in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity Above Support Level – Natural Gas

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market delivered a mixed performance last week, as traders weighed improving momentum against lingering tariff-related uncertainties. Precious metals benefited from safe-haven demand, with gold advancing 2.94% and silver up 3.07%. In industrial metals, price action was more restrained. Copper gained 1.02%, while lead slipped 0.42% and zinc edged higher by 0.12%. Although tariff developments between major economies remain a key driver of sentiment, attention is now turning to upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could prove pivotal in shaping market expectations and fueling near-term volatility.

In the energy sector, natural gas prices advanced 5.41%, though gains were tempered by ample supply and muted seasonal demand. Crude oil inched up 0.55%, supported by trade-related concerns and OPEC’s production stance. In agriculture, U.S. sugar rose 1.23%, bucking the broader weakness across the sector. Overall, these moves highlight ongoing supply–demand imbalances and the market’s heightened sensitivity to economic and geopolitical developments, which are expected to guide price action in the days ahead.

Global commodity markets posted a mixed performance last week as investors weighed macroeconomic uncertainty against shifting tariff dynamics. Precious metals remained resilient, with gold and silver consolidating near recent highs amid cautious sentiment and evolving interest rate expectations. In energy, crude oil eased on concerns over global demand and trade headwinds, while natural gas fell sharply under the weight of persistent oversupply. Base metals showed a divergent trend, with copper advancing on renewed industrial demand, whereas agricultural commodities were largely range-bound, supported by steady consumption and favorable weather conditions. Overall, sentiment stayed guarded, with markets looking ahead to key economic data and trade policy developments that are likely to define the near-term trajectory.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update ISM Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Employment Change and       Unemployment Rate.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Natural Gas November Future (NYMEX: NGX25 ) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Natural Gas November Future (NYMEX: NGX25 )

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis:   Natural Gas November Futures are trading above a key falling trendline support and sustaining comfortably, reinforcing a constructive technical setup. The contract also remains above the 21-period SMA, which continues to act as an important support zone. The RSI at 46.21 reflects improving momentum. As long as prices hold above the support area, the outlook remains positive, with a decisive breakout above resistance likely to unlock further upside potential in the near term. Broader market sentiment, however, will continue to play a critical role in guiding direction.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 3.55 and USD 3.70, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Natural Gas November Future (NYMEX: NGX25) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 01^st September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.