Mixed Commodity Action Last Week, but Natural Gas Maintains Its Support Base

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The global commodities market ended the week on a broadly mixed note, with precious metals showing divergent moves. Gold slipped 0.20%, while silver climbed 3.32%, signalling selective buying amid cautious sentiment. Base metals were firmer, led by copper rising 3.90% and zinc gaining 3.02%, whereas lead dipped 0.64%. Overall, traders remained measured as they awaited key economic data and greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming December policy decision.

Natural gas surged 9.05% last week, driven by strong seasonal demand and balanced supply conditions. Light sweet crude oil registered a modest 2.61% gain as stable production trends kept prices supported. In agriculture, U.S. sugar declined 2.70%, extending its negative trajectory amid improving global supply prospects. Overall, the commodities complex showed a generally constructive tone, with upcoming economic data and policy cues expected to shape near-term sentiment.

Global commodities ended the week on a broadly mixed yet steady note, reflecting a measured improvement in sentiment across key segments. Energy markets held firm as crude oil and natural gas drew support from seasonal demand and balanced supply conditions. Industrial metals gained traction, with copper and zinc maintaining resilient upward momentum, while precious metals found support amid improving risk appetite. U.S. sugar also held a constructive bias on favorable supply cues. Overall, the commodity space maintained a mildly bullish tone as investors awaited upcoming economic data and policy signals to guide near-term direction.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include updated JOLTS Job Openings, Core CPI, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference and Initial Jobless Claims.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Natural Gas February Future (NYMEX: NGG26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 Natural Gas February Future (NYMEX: NGG26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: February Natural Gas futures are holding above a key horizontal support zone, maintaining levels near the breakout area despite a bearish candlestick formation. However, the 21-period and 50-period SMAs remain above the current price and could act as near-term resistance, potentially capping the strength of any short-term rebound. The RSI at 64.52 signals improving momentum, but a clear breakout above these moving averages is required to validate a more sustained upward trend.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 5.05 and USD 5.20, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Natural Gas February Future (NYMEX: NGG26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 08^th December 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.