Mixed Commodity Action Last Week, but Aluminium Maintains Its Support Base

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The global commodities market ended the week on a mixed note, with precious metals showing strength. Gold advanced 1.98%, while silver surged 5.03%, reflecting selective safe-haven and momentum-driven buying. In the base metals segment, performance was mixed, with copper down 0.98% and lead lower by 2.00%, while zinc gained 1.05%. Overall sentiment remained cautious. After the recent rate cut, upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to be more important in shaping expectations for the next rate decision.

Natural gas plunged 22.23% last week, slipping sharply despite colder conditions in the U.S. and a rise in demand. Light sweet crude oil recorded a modest 4.39% decline, pressured by the recent rate cut and easing geopolitical concerns following ceasefire developments between Russia and Ukraine. In agriculture, U.S. sugar gained 2.03%, extending its positive trend amid improving global supply prospects. Overall, the commodities complex showed mixed conditions, with upcoming economic data and policy cuts expected to guide near-term sentiment.

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed but steady footing, reflecting cautious and selective participation across markets. Energy prices remained under pressure, with weakness in natural gas and crude oil driven by supply dynamics and easing geopolitical concerns. Industrial metals exhibited mixed behavior, while agricultural commodities remained relatively stable on supportive supply cues. Overall sentiment remained neutral, with market participants awaiting key economic data and policy guidance to shape near-term direction.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include updated Nonfarm Payrolls, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Core CPI, Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss CMALH26 (LME: CMALH26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 Aluminium March Future (LME: CMALH26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: March Aluminium futures are holding above a key horizontal support zone and continue to trade near the recent breakout area, despite the formation of a bearish candlestick. The 21-period and 50-period SMAs remain positioned below the current price and are likely to act as near-term support, influencing short-term price behavior. The RSI at 51.77 reflects improving momentum, though a decisive move above nearby resistance levels would be needed to confirm a more sustained upward move.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 3050.00 and USD 3100.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Aluminium March Future (LME: CMALH26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 12^th December 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.