May 2025 Overseas Travel Data Bode Well for Travel & Tourism Sector

This report is an updated version of the report published on 17 July 2025 at 1:32 PM AEST 

Company Overview

Company Overview: Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA) is a property development company. It owns, operates, and develops a portfolio of lifestyle and holiday communities across key urban and coastal markets. It operates in five segments: Lifestyle Development; Lifestyle Rental; Ingenia Gardens; Ingenia Holidays; and Fuel, Food & Beverage Services. Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX: AQZ) is an Australia-based company, which is a provider of contract, charter and allied aviation and maintenance services. It also provides specialized aviation services to airlines and clients, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing and engineering services.  Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Investment Summary, Sector Overview & Supporting Catalysts, Data Insights & Analysis, Financial Metrics, Financial Commentary, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on selected stocks.

Investment Summary

Sector Overview and Supporting Drivers

Australia’s Travel & Tourism sector is a vital contributor to the national economy, driven by its world-renowned natural attractions, cultural diversity, and strong service infrastructure. The sector is experiencing a robust recovery post-COVID, supported by government campaigns, increased airline capacity, and the return of international visitors, students, and event tourism. Domestic travel remains resilient, with rising demand for regional and eco-friendly experiences. Key growth catalysts include favourable currency trends, expanding visa access, and the rising middle class in Asia-Pacific. However, the industry faces risks from global economic uncertainty, labour shortages, climate impacts, and competition from other regional destinations.

Sector Catalysts

Index Performance

Investment theme and stocks under discussion (INA, AQZ)

After understanding the sectors, let us now look at two companies from the Food Services sector listed on the ASX. The price potential of the companies under discussion have been analysed based on Price/Book Value and EV/Sales based relative valuation methods, respectively. 

1. ASX: INA (Ingenia Communities Group)

(Recommendation: ‘Speculative Buy’ at AUD 5.280; Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit; MCap: AUD 2.07bn)

INA is a property development company. It owns, operates, and develops a portfolio of lifestyle and holiday communities across key urban and coastal markets. It operates in five segments: Lifestyle Development; Lifestyle Rental; Ingenia Gardens; Ingenia Holidays; and Fuel, Food & Beverage Services.

The stock has witnessed a correction of ~4.68% in last one month, and over the past six months, the stock is almost unchanged. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 4.500 and AUD 5.890, respectively and is currently trading close to the mid-point of its 52-week high and low.

2. ASX: AQZ (Alliance Aviation Services Limited)

(Recommendation: ‘Speculative Buy’ at AUD 2.650; Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit; MCap: AUD 424.91mn)

AQZ is an Australia-based company, which is a provider of contract, charter and allied aviation and maintenance services. It also provides specialized aviation services to airlines and clients, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing and engineering services.

The stock has appreciated by ~10.97% in last one month, and over the past six months, it has declined by ~7.08%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 2.120 and AUD 3.170, respectively and is currently trading near the 52-week high-low average. AQZ was last covered in a report dated ‘28 February 2025’.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an Indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. 

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 17 July 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An ‘Exit’ from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.