Is NZ’s Industrials Sector Well-placed for Long-term Growth Amidst Macro Uncertainties – 2 Stocks to Consider

Company Overview:  

Accordant Group Limited (NZX: AGL) is a New Zealand-based recruitment company engaged in the supply of temporary staff, contractor resources, and recruitment of permanent staff. Move Logistics Group Limited (NZX: MOV) is one of NZ’s largest private domestic freight and logistics platforms

Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis, Key Support and Resistance Levels, and Recommendation on the stock.

Sector Landscape and Outlook

Stats NZ reported that the construction and manufacturing industries witnessed the largest declines in sales in the quarter ended June 2025, out of the 14 industries measured by business financial data. The construction sales declined $720 Mn as compared to the March 2025 quarter. The construction sales fell 3.1% in the June 2025 quarter, after the 0.7% increase in the March 2025 quarter. Construction sales, as measured by the business financial data, amounted to $22.3 Bn in the June 2025 quarter. The value of building work put in place stood at $7.9 Bn, or 35% of the construction sales. 

The value of building work put in place fell 14% over the same period.

Exhibit 1: Percentage Change in Seasonally Adjusted Construction Sales and Value of Building Work Put in Place, June 2024–June 2025 Quarters

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Rise in Apartment Consents

As per Stats NZ, there were 33,879 new homes consented in Aotearoa NZ in the year ended July 2025, reflecting a fall of 0.1% as compared to the year ended July 2024. The stand-alone house consents increased 1.7% in the year to July 2025, while there was an overall decline in multi-unit home consents. Out of the multi-unit homes consented in the year to July 2025 compared with the year ended July 2024, there were 14,441 townhouses, flats, and units (a fall of 3.4%), 2,270 apartments (rise of 26%), and 1,483 retirement village units (down 16%).

Exhibit 2: New Homes Consented

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Seasonally Adjusted Goods Deficit Widens

In the quarter ended June 2025, the primary income deficit narrowed by $1.0 Bn to $2.3 Bn. This was the smallest it has been since $2.2 Bn, which was witnessed in the September 2021 quarter, highlighted Stats NZ. Furthermore, the seasonally adjusted goods deficit widened to $128 Mn in the June 2025 quarter, after the deficit of $126 Mn in the March 2025 quarter. Notably, the goods exports decreased $896 Mn in the June 2025 quarter to $19.8 Bn. This was led by declines in dairy, fruit, and meat.

Also, the goods imports decreased $895 Mn to $19.9 Bn, which was led by falls in fuel and mechanical machinery and equipment. 

Key Risks and Challenges:

RBNZ recently stated that there are upside and downside risks to the broader economic outlook. With inflation expected to increase to 3.0% in the September quarter, there is a possibility that it increases above the target band. If inflation were to remain higher for longer than anticipated, this could influence the inflation expectations as well as wage- and price-setting behaviour in the medium term. Overall, the broader NZ industrials sector is exposed to the risks related to the geopolitical volatility which can impact the supply chains, macro-economic slowdown, etc.

Exhibit 3: Key Risks in Industrials Sector:

Source: Analysis by Kalkine Group

Outlook:

As per The Treasury, the centrepiece of Budget 2025 is Investment Boost- a tax incentive for businesses for investments in productive assets such as machinery, tools and equipment. By increasing the stock of capital in NZ, Investment Boost is projected to lift GDP by 1% and wages by 1.5% over the upcoming 20 years, with half these gains in the next 5 years. In the release dated August 20, RBNZ stated that the increases in administered prices, like local council rates as well as some energy charges, resulted in the higher-than-otherwise non-tradables inflation.

There has been slow growth in parts of the economy which are most sensitive to interest rates. Notably, residential construction, house prices as well as retail activity have not significantly recovered, despite the monetary easing. That being said, RBNZ also highlighted that growth in interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy is expected to recover over the balance of the year. 

Apart from the sector-specific factors, an analysis on 2 NZX-listed companies is provided. This report covers their insights, outlook, performance and potential as expected to be delivered in the near to medium term.

1) Accordant Group Limited (Recommendation: Speculative Buy, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 9.49 Mn)

Business Description:

Accordant Group Limited (NZX: AGL) is a New Zealand-based recruitment company engaged in the supply of temporary staff, contractor resources, and recruitment of permanent staff.

Outlook:

For FY 2026, the company’s strategic focus is towards aligning with resilient sectors and clients with the ongoing work pipelines as well as leveraging the diversified brand portfolio to provide end-to-end talent solutions. Overall, AGL is confident in its breadth of services, focussing towards growth from higher fee earning work and strategic contingent solutions which actively help the clients.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary:

On the daily chart, AGL’s stock price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern during a downtrend, indicating a negative bias. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is heading southward from its midpoint, providing further support to the previous observation. Prices are trading between its previous peak and trough, which might function as resistance and support levels for the stock, respectively. A significant support level for the stock is positioned at NZD 0.260, while critical resistance level is located at NZD 0.31.

AGL Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Stock Recommendation

The stock price as on the close of 24^th September 2025 was NZD 0.280 per share. The stock did not trade on 25^th September 2025. Considering the aforementioned factors, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating is given on the stock at the closing market price of NZD 0.280 per share as on 24 September 2025.

2) Move Logistics Group Limited (Recommendation: Hold, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 26.7 Mn)

Business Description:

Move Logistics Group Limited (NZX: MOV) is a New Zealand-based company, which is engaged in domestic freight and logistics business.

Outlook:

While the broader economy remains soft and timing and speed of economic recovery remain unclear, MOV is expecting that improvement will take place in 2026. Also, the long-term macro drivers are positive. Also, an increase in market activity as well as customer demand, along with improvements from transformation plan, would be resulting in earnings growth.

Technical Overview:

MOV Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Technical Commentary

On the daily chart, MOV’s stock prices are forming a trading range characterized by identical highs and lows, suggesting that the sideways period on the stock might continue to persist in the near future. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is oscillating around the midpoint, adding further evidence to the previous analysis. Prices are trading between previous peak and trough, which might serve as resistance and support levels for the stock, respectively. A significant support level for the stock is positioned at NZD 0.171, while critical resistance level is located at NZD 0.250.

Stock Recommendation

Considering the aforementioned factors, a ‘Hold’ rating is given on the stock at the closing market price of NZD 0.21 per share as on 25 September 2025.  

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is September 25, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4:  Annual Dividend Yield is on a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM¹) basis and are subject to change based on factors such as company performance, stock price changes, etc.

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.