How Is NZ’s Industrials Sector Performing Amidst Global Challenges – 2 Stocks to Consider

Company Overview:  

Accordant Group Limited (NZX: AGL) is a New Zealand-based recruitment company engaged in the supply of temporary staff, contractor resources, and recruitment of permanent staff. Freightways Group Limited (NZX: FRW) is the operator of express logistics businesses in the express package, business mail, information management as well as waste renewal industries.

Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Sector Landscape and Outlook

Stats NZ reported that there were 3,747 new homes consented in Aotearoa NZ in September 2025, reflecting a rise of 27% as compared to September 2024. Excluding the seasonal effects, the number of new homes consented in September 2025 witnessed a rise of 7.2% as compared to August 2025. Notably, September witnessed the highest number of homes consented in over 2 years. There has been a decline in residential construction over the recent years, but home consents continue to trend up through 2025 and have strengthened over the recent months, reflecting a possible lift in the future building activity.

In actual terms, there were 1,601 stand-alone houses which were consented in September 2025, a rise of 16% as compared to September 2024.

Exhibit 1: New Homes Consented, Monthly, May 2025 – September 2025

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Overseas Merchandise Trade (September 2025)

As per Stats NZ, in September 2025, goods exports witnessed a rise of $928 Mn (or 19%) to $5.8 Bn and goods imports increased $116 Mn (or 1.6%) to $7.2 Bn. Notably, the monthly trade balance was a deficit of $1.4 Bn. With respect to exports, milk powder, butter, and cheese witnessed a rise of $289 Mn (or 27%) to $1.4 Bn, while Kiwifruit export value increased $1.2 Bn (or 36%) to $4.5 Bn in the year to September 2025 as compared to the year to September 2024.

Talking about the export partners, with respect to China, total exports rose $266 Mn (or 24%) and the largest increases were milk powder, butter, and cheese, up by $176 Mn, and preparations of milk, cereals, flour, and starch, which were up $51 Mn.

Exhibit 2: Overseas Merchandise Trade

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Balance of Payments and International Investment Position

Stats NZ released data about Balance of payments and international investment position for the year ended 31 March 2025. As of 31 March 2025, out of NZ’s $422.6 Bn total investment abroad, 70.9% was in the US, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Japan, while 6.9% was direct investment. Notably, 65.4% was portfolio investment and 4.4% was financial derivatives.

On the other hand, out of the $633.8 Bn total foreign investment in NZ, 58.4% was from Australia, the US, the UK, and Singapore, while 25.2% was direct investment.

Key Risks and Challenges:

RBNZ, in the release dated 8^th October, stated that slow growth in the disposable income as well as house prices has been impacting the economic activity, but reduced rates continue to support recovery in consumption. The Committee assessed upside risks to the domestic inflation. Notably, businesses have been facing cost pressures from administered prices, like local council rates, and some energy charges. Overall, the broader industrials sector in NZ is exposed to risks related to the global economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, etc.

Exhibit 3: Key Risks in Industrials Sector:

Source: Analysis by Kalkine Group

Outlook:

As per RBNZ, the construction activity is expected to recover from mid-2026 as and when demand for dwellings recovers and house price growth resumes. The Committee believes that this can reduce spare capacity in the broader economy and support a rise in the business investment, even as export prices moderate from the higher levels, and government spending falls as the share of the economy. New Zealand Foreign Affairs & Trade released an update stating that the EU has been rapidly scaling up investment and fast-tracking projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act. This creates numerous opportunities for NZ firms in minerals recycling, project management, as well as technology, both in the EU and via inward investment at home.  

With avenues through the NZ–EU FTA and Horizon Europe, there are several opportunities for NZ companies to tap in the strategic projects and supply chain partnerships helping Europe’s green and digital transitions.

Apart from the sector-specific factors, an analysis on 2 NZX-listed companies is provided. This report covers their insights, outlook, performance and potential as expected to be delivered in the near to medium term.

1) Accordant Group Limited (Recommendation: Speculative Buy, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 9.8 Mn)

Business Description:

Accordant Group Limited (NZX: AGL) is a New Zealand-based recruitment company engaged in the supply of temporary staff, contractor resources, and recruitment of permanent staff.

Outlook:

For FY 2026, the company’s strategic focus is towards leveraging the diversified brand portfolio to provide end-to-end talent solutions. With respect to Hobson Leavy, the company stated that clients remain confident in its expertise, process and extensive international reach. For FY 2026, AGL’s next step is embedding AI Assistants and Agents into the operating platforms.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary:

On the daily chart, AGL’s stock price is developing an ascending triangle pattern during a downtrend, suggesting that the current sideways period in stock might continue to persist in the near future. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is trading near its midpoint, providing further support to the previous observation. Prices are trading between its previous peak and trough, which might function as resistance and support levels for the stock, respectively. A significant support level for the stock is positioned at NZD 0.270, while critical resistance level is located at NZD 0.310.

AGL Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Stock Recommendation

The stock price as on the close of 5^th November 2025 was NZD 0.29 per share. The stock did not trade on 6^th November 2025. Considering the aforementioned factors, a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating is given on the stock at the closing market price of NZD 0.29 per share as on 5^th November 2025.

2) Freightways Group Limited (Recommendation: Buy, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 2.5 Bn, Annual Dividend Yield: 3.9%)

Business Description:

Freightways Group Limited (NZX: FRW) is engaged in the operation of express package and business mail services and information management services. 

Outlook:

For FY 2026, NZ volumes are anticipated to benefit as the economy starts to grow. FRW’s focus is towards demonstrating and continuing to improve the service quality to attract, and retain, new customers for each of the niche-facing brands. Furthermore, there are several organic and inorganic opportunities which the company would continue to pursue in FY 2026.

Fundamental Valuation

P/E Based Relative Valuation

Technical Overview:

FRW Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITIV

Technical Commentary

On the daily chart, FRW’s stock price is undergoing an uptrend characterized by higher highs an higher lows, indicating a positive bias. In contrast, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) formed a top divergence in relation to prices, anticipating a potential minor correction. Prices are trading above both 21-day and 50-day SMAs, which might function as dynamic support levels for the stock; in contrast, the stock’s most recent high may act as a resistance. A significant support level for the stock is positioned at NZD 13.00, while critical resistance level is located at NZD 14.88.

Stock Recommendation

Considering the aforementioned factors, a ‘Buy’ rating is given on the stock at the closing market price of NZD 14.23 per share, down by 0.49% as on 6 November 2025.  

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 6, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4:  Annual Dividend Yield is on a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM¹) basis and are subject to change based on factors such as company performance, stock price changes, etc.

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.