How Is NZ’s Consumer Sector Placed Amidst Macro-economic Uncertainties

This report is an updated version of the report published on 13 November at 5:51 PM (GMT +13)

Company Overview:

The Warehouse Group Limited (NZX: WHS) is a New Zealand-based company, which operates as a general merchandise retailer. Briscoe Group Limited (NZX: BGP) operates through 2 segments: Homeware and Sporting goods.

Kalkine’s Sector Report covers the Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Outlook, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

1. Sector Landscape and Outlook

As per Stats NZ, NZ’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in the quarter ended September 2025. The employment rate stood at 66.6%, while the annual wage inflation was 2.1%. In the FEU dated 6th November, a higher underutilisation rate and disinflationary pressure demonstrated significant spare capacity. That being said, there are some signs related to the stabilisation, with HLFS employment flat after declining for 4 consecutive quarters as well as a rebound in hours worked and hours paid.

Data by Stats NZ highlighted that there were 160,000 unemployed people in quarter ended September 2025, as measured by the Household Labour Force Survey. Out of the unemployed ones, 22,700 (or 14.5%) had been unemployed for more than a year (not seasonally adjusted). Notably, being unemployed for more than a year is one measure of the long-term unemployment.

Exhibit 1: Unemployment and Underutilisation Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) (Sept 2024 - Sept 2025 Quarter)

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Electronic Card Transactions (October 2025)

Stats NZ released data about electronic card transactions (for October 2025 month). The spending in the retail industries rose 0.2% (or $11 Mn) and spending in the core retail industries went up by 0.2% (or $10 Mn) as compared to September 2025. By the retail spending category, consumables were up by $22 Mn (or 0.8%), and fuel increased by $2.5 Mn (or 0.5%). On the other hand, durables were down by $1.5 Mn (or 0.1%), apparel fell by $1.9 Mn (or 0.6%) and motor vehicles (excluding fuel) declined by $2.3 Mn (or 1.2%).

Stats NZ also stated that the non-retail (excluding services) category declined by $7.2 Mn (or 0.3%) as compared to September 2025. This category consists of medical and other health care, travel and tour arrangement, postal and courier delivery, as well as other non-retail industries.

Exhibit 2: Percentage Change in Seasonally Adjusted Card Transaction Values (By Industry) (Sept 2025 - Oct 2025)

Data Source: This work is based on/includes Stats NZ’s data which are licensed by Stats NZ for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence; Chart Created by Kalkine Group

Household Living Costs Witness an Increase

As per Stats NZ, the cost of living for the average NZ household witnessed an increase of 2.4% during the 12 months ended September 2025 quarter. This increase was measured by the household living-costs price indexes (HLPIs) and follows the 2.6% rise in the 12 months ended June 2025 quarter. For the average household, the electricity cost went up by 11.3% during the 12 months ended September 2025.

On the lowest-spending households, the annual rise in electricity costs had more impact, and electricity made a contribution of 19% to their annual inflation rate of 4.0%.

Key Risks and Challenges:

As per RBNZ’s October 8 release, the cautious behaviour by households and businesses might slow the economic recovery, reducing the medium-term inflation pressure. Furthermore, slow growth in disposable incomes as well as house prices have been impacting the economic activity. However, the reduced interest rates continue to support a recovery in consumption. Overall, the fluctuations in rates, increased inflation, lower consumer confidence, reduced discretionary spending, etc. are some of the risks consumer discretionary sector is exposed to.

Exhibit 3. Key Risks in Consumer Discretionary Sector:

Source: Analysis by Kalkine Group

Outlook:

As per RBNZ, the broader economic activity in NZ was subdued as compared to other economies. This resulted in the lower exchange rate. This, along with increased commodity export prices, continue to offer support to the domestic economy over very near term, mainly in rural and exporting regions of NZ. According to Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) June 2025, NZ has been continuing its efforts to strengthen as well as diversify the global trade relationships, emphasizing towards improving market access and economic resilience.

With respect to 2025/26, the meat and wool export revenue is expected to continue to grow, with a 3% growth to $12.7 Bn because of improvement in demand and constrained global beef exports helping prices. Notably, there is increased uncertainty as a result of geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies.

Apart from the sector-specific factors, an analysis on 2 NZX-listed companies is provided. This report covers their insights, outlook, performance and potential as expected to be delivered in the near to medium term.

1) The Warehouse Group Limited (Recommendation: Buy, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 280.9 Mn)

Business Description:

The Warehouse Group Limited (NZX: WHS) is a New Zealand-based company, which operates as a general merchandise retailer.

Outlook:

WHS announced the appointment of Hamish Rumbold as an Independent Non-Executive Director to the Board, effective from 19 November 2025. It also announced the departure of Robert (Robbie) Tindall, Non-Executive Director, effective 28 November 2025. WHS stated that new leadership team has been established, and the direction remains in place. For FY 2026, the focus is towards disciplined delivery to witness margin recovery, reductions in overhead as well as working capital unlocks.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary

Stock Recommendation

Considering the facts above, a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock has been provided at the current market price of NZD 0.795 per share (New Zealand Time: 1:00 PM, (GMT +13)) as on 13^th November 2025.  

2) Briscoe Group Limited (Recommendation: Hold, Potential Upside: Low Double-Digit) (M-Cap: NZD 1.2 Bn, Annual Dividend Yield: 5.14%)

Business Description:

Briscoe Group Limited (NZX: BGP) operates through 2 segments: Homeware and Sporting goods.

Outlook:

Heading into Q4 2025, BGP is focusing towards optimising the relationship between sales and gross profit margin. Notably, the margin and cost pressures are affecting the bottom line, but the company is hopeful that the recent OCR reductions would be fuelling consumer confidence and drive the retail spend during the final trading period. The company is expecting full-year net profit after tax  (to 25 January 2026) of ~$60 million.

Technical Overview:

Technical Commentary

On the daily chart, BGP’s stock price is forming a trading range characterized by a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that the current sideways period in the stock might remain intact in the near term. Moreover, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-period) is trading near its midpoint, providing further support to the previous analysis. Prices are trading between its previous peak and trough, which could serve as resistance and support levels for the stock, respectively. A significant support level for the stock is located at NZD 5.0, while critical resistance level is placed at NZD 6.0.

Fundamental Valuation

Stock Recommendation

Considering the facts above, a ‘Hold’ recommendation on the stock has been provided at the current market price of NZD 5.40 per share (New Zealand Time: 1:00 PM, (GMT +13)) as on 13^th November 2025.

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 13, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4:  Annual Dividend Yield is on a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM¹) basis and are subject to change based on factors such as company performance, stock price changes, etc.

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.