Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview:

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY), based in South Africa, is engaged in gold mining and exploration. The company’s operations encompass the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold, structured across three key segments: South Africa Underground, Surface, and International.

Kalkine’s Diversified Opportunities Report covers the Company Overview, Key positives & negatives, Investment summary, Key investment metrics, Top 10 shareholding, Business updates and insights into company recent financial results, Key Risks & Outlook, Price performance and technical summary, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Stock Performance:

• The daily chart of Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) shows a recent pullback after a strong rally since late September. The stock has declined below its 20-day moving average (currently at USD 18.86) and is testing support near the 50-day moving average at USD 16.69. This suggests short-term bearish momentum following overbought conditions.
• The RSI at ~39 indicates weakening momentum but not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside before a potential reversal.
• Volume has spiked during the recent decline, reflecting profit-taking or short-term distribution.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, and Investment summary

1.3 Top 10 shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~ 16.57% of the total shareholding, signifying concentrated shareholding. Van Eck Associates Corporation and Lingotto Investment Management LLP are the biggest shareholders, holding the maximum stake in the company at 7.45% and 2.92%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics:

In FY25, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited delivered a strong uplift in its financial performance, driven by favourable market dynamics and disciplined operational execution. Revenue and earnings improved significantly, supported by a 27% rise in the average gold price received and higher underground recovered grades, notably at Mponeng, which achieved 11.27g/t. These factors underpinned robust expansion across gross, EBITDA, operating, and pretax margins, highlighting the strength and efficiency of Harmony’s operating model. Margin growth was further reinforced by strong output from high-margin assets such as Mponeng, Hidden Valley, and surface operations, which offset inflationary cost pressures from labour, electricity, and royalties. Net profit margins expanded meaningfully, lifting return on equity and reflecting the company’s improved capacity to generate value from its capital base. However, a higher effective tax rate—driven by greater taxable income from South African operations—and realised hedge losses partly limited the full upside from higher gold prices. Overall, FY25 underscored the success of Harmony’s value-over-volume strategy, with record free cash flow, a stronger balance sheet, and rising shareholder returns positioning the company well for continued growth and copper diversification.

1.5 Analysis of Gold Prices

Gold prices rebounded to around $4,120/oz, ending a two-day decline as geopolitical tensions and trade concerns boosted safe-haven demand. Gains followed US sanctions on Russia, potential export restrictions on China, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. However, gold remains about 6% below its recent peak after sharp profit-taking that led to its worst weekly loss in over five years.

Section 2: Business Updates and Corporate Business Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates

2.2 Insights of FY25:

Section 3: Key Risks & Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary:

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

Stock Performance:

• The daily chart of Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) shows a recent pullback after a strong rally since late September. The stock has declined below its 20-day moving average (currently at USD 18.86) and is testing support near the 50-day moving average at USD 16.69. This suggests short-term bearish momentum following overbought conditions.
• The RSI at ~39 indicates weakening momentum but not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside before a potential reversal.
• Volume has spiked during the recent decline, reflecting profit-taking or short-term distribution.

 4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Based Relative Valuation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is October 22, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

 Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.