Commodities Show Mixed Momentum; Wheat Defends Support, Offering Bullish Trade Setup

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market showed signs of cooling last week as earlier momentum faded amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing global economic uncertainty. Investors turned cautious, leading to profit-taking in precious metals gold fell 1.94% and silver dropped 0.92%. In the industrial segment, copper edged up 0.07%, zinc rose 0.22%, and lead gained 0.01%, reflecting mixed sentiment. The overall movement indicates a shift in investor positioning, balancing risk aversion with selective interest in cyclical assets. Markets remain focused on upcoming central bank decisions and continued concerns over the broader economic outlook and regional geopolitical developments.

Natural gas prices jumped 7.25% last week amid supply concerns despite easing seasonal demand. Crude oil rose 3.58%, extending its rally on heightened Middle East tensions and tighter supply expectations. In contrast, U.S. sugar prices held steady at 0.00%, defying broader agricultural trends. These varied moves highlight ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the commodities market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks and economic shifts, keeping volatility elevated across the energy and agricultural segments.

Global commodity prices extended their bullish trend last week, underpinned by improving sentiment despite persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Precious metals hovered near key resistance levels, indicating consolidation as investors reassessed risk appetite. Crude oil continued its upward momentum, driven by hopes of recovery and a tightening supply outlook, while natural gas traded with high volatility within a broad range. Agricultural commodities remained steady, supported by firm demand and favorable sector-specific fundamentals. Overall, markets reflected a cautiously optimistic stance, with participants selectively positioning ahead of key economic data releases and central bank policy signals, keeping a close eye on global developments.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update Existing Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, GDP and Core PCE Price Index.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Wheat September Future (CBOT: WU25) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Wheat September Future (CBOT: WU25)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: September Wheat futures continue to display bullish resilience, trading above a descending trendline and the 21-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting sustained positive sentiment. The 50-period SMA provides a strong support base, further reinforcing the prevailing uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.23, indicating steady momentum, while the possibility of a bullish divergence adds to the optimism. This technical configuration points to a constructive near-term outlook. A breakout above immediate resistance levels could confirm the onset of a new bullish phase. Meanwhile, consistent support may lead to healthy consolidation, keeping the overall bias upward with the potential for further gains.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 630.00 and USc 645.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Wheat September Future (CBOT: WU25) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 23^rd June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.