Commodities Market Ended Last Week on a Bullish Note, Support Sustained in Soybean Oil

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market showed a modest uptick last week, balancing neutral momentum with shifting interest rate expectations. Gold rose 0.91%, and silver gained 3.08%, while industrial metals advanced, with copper up 1.61%, lead gained 1.60%, and zinc at 3.32%. The mixed performance reflects cautious optimism under ongoing global trade uncertainties. Tariff developments between major economies continue to weigh on sentiment, while focus turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, expected to guide market direction and near-term volatility.

Natural gas declined 1.55% last week due to supply pressures and weaker seasonal demand, while crude oil rose 1.65% as OPEC’s production stance and trade-related factors supported sentiment. U.S. sugar surged 2.23%, standing out against softness in other agricultural commodities. The moves reflect supply–demand imbalances and the influence of economic and geopolitical factors, with markets closely watching global developments and potential interest rate changes for near-term price direction.

Global commodities ended last week on a positive bias, with improving sentiment amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Precious metals consolidated near recent highs, while crude oil gained on support from trade-related factors and OPEC’s supply stance. Natural gas eased under oversupply pressure, but copper advanced on signs of renewed industrial demand. Agricultural commodities held steadily, aided by stable consumption and favorable weather. Markets now look to upcoming economic data and policy updates for near-term direction.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update Core Retail Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference, Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Soybean Oil December Future (CBOT: BOZ5) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Soybean Oil December Future (CBOT: BOZ5)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: December soybean oil futures are displaying upward momentum, holding above a key horizontal trendline and the 21-period Simple Moving Average, reinforced by consecutive bullish candles. The 50-period SMA, positioned below current levels, adds to near-term support. The RSI at 49.79 signals improving momentum with signs of bullish divergence. Maintaining levels above support keeps the outlook constructive, while a breakout above resistance may open scope for further gains, with broader market sentiment remaining a key driver.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 56.20 and USc 57.50, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Soybean Oil December Future (CBOT: BOZ5) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 15^th September 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.