Bullish Momentum in Commodities Market Last Week, One Commodity above Support Level – US Corn

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

The metals market gained upside momentum last week as geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty drove investor interest in both safe-haven and industrial assets. Gold rose 0.92% and silver surged 9.42%, reflecting stronger demand for precious metals. Base metals also moved higher, with copper up 2.03%, zinc gaining 1.42%, and lead rising 0.77%, indicating improving industrial sentiment. This broad-based rally suggests a shift in market positioning, as investors navigate geopolitical risks while cautiously re-engaging with cyclical assets amid expectations of key signals from central banks and ongoing concerns over the global economic environment.

Last week, natural gas prices jumped 9.62%, driven by rising seasonal demand and ongoing supply concerns. Crude oil followed with a 6.42% gain, supported by improving market sentiment and expectations of tighter supply. In contrast, U.S. sugar declined 3.28%, bucking the broader trend in agricultural commodities. These divergent moves highlight continued supply-demand imbalances and the market’s sensitivity to global economic uncertainty. With volatility remaining high across both energy and agricultural segments, investors should stay alert to macroeconomic developments and commodity-specific factors that could shape short-term price movements.

Global commodity prices saw a measured rebound last week, supported by improving market sentiment despite lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Precious metals hovered near key technical levels, suggesting consolidation rather than immediate reversal, as risk appetite showed signs of recovery. In the energy sector, natural gas remained volatile within a wide range, while crude oil extended its rebound, reflecting optimism around demand recovery. Agricultural commodities stabilized, buoyed by steady demand and sector-specific drivers. Overall, the market reflects a cautiously optimistic tone, with investors selectively positioning amid easing fears and a renewed focus on upcoming economic data and policy cues.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include an update CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, PPI and Michigan Consumer Expectations.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss US Corn July Future (CBOT: CN25) for the next 2-4 weeks duration: 

US Corn July Future (CBOT: CN25)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: July U.S. Corn futures are maintaining support above a key level, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A recent bullish candlestick pattern supports positive market sentiment, while the 50-period Simple Moving Average acts as near-term resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.03 shows a stronger momentum and hints at a possible bullish divergence forming. This technical setup suggests cautious optimism, with moving averages providing a stable base for upside potential. A decisive breakout above resistance could lead to further gains, while holding above support may result in consolidation before the next upward move. Overall, the trend remains bullish with increasing momentum.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 480.00 and USc 495.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, US Corn July Future (CBOT: CN25) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 09^th June 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.