ASX-All Ordinaries Index is Trading Below 21-Period SMA, One ASX-Listed Stock to Consider at the Current Levels -AMI

Company Overview:  Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX: AMI) is an Australian mining company engaged in the extraction of gold, copper, lead, zinc, and silver, as well as the development of mineral projects in New South Wales. Below are the key price indicators for the stock: This Report covers the Price Action, Technical Indicators Analysis along with the Stop Loss Levels, Target Prices, and Recommendation on this one stock.

ASX All Ordinaries Index (.AORD) Market Round-Up

The ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) ended the week on a positive note, closing at 8,195.50 with a 0.45% gain, despite declines in U.S. equity markets. However, weakness in global sentiment weighed on domestic markets, further dampening investor confidence and reinforcing the broader bearish outlook.

From a technical standpoint, the index remains below a key rising trendline support, signalling a loss of upward momentum. Additionally, it continues to trade beneath the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which acts as a significant resistance level. Unless the index breaks decisively above this resistance zone, selling pressure may persist in the near term. The upcoming macroeconomic events that may impact the market sentiments include an update on the AU Retail Sales m/m, US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Unemployment Claims, etc., released weekly.

Global Markets Wrap-Up

Wall Street indices ended the week lower, extending their recent downward trend. The S&P 500 declined 1.53% to close at 5,580.94, while the NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.59%, finishing at 17,322.99 for the week ending March 28, 2025. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted initial U.S. unemployment insurance claims decreased by 1,000 to 224,000 for the week ending March 22, 2025, down from the revised 225,000 reported the previous week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Having understood the US market performance over the past week, taking cues from major global news, and based on technical analysis of the ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at one ASX-listed stock from the technical standpoint. Noted below recommendation is based on entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX: AMI) for the next 2-4 weeks duration: -

Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX: AMI)

Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, AMI continues to trade above its horizontal trendline breakout level, indicating the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The stock remains supported by its trendline support zone, reinforcing positive sentiment. In the short term (2-4 weeks), AMI is approaching a key resistance level at AUD 0.295. A decisive breakout above this level, backed by strong volume, could attract increased buying interest and push prices toward the next target at AUD 0.320.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the 14-period RSI stands at approximately 67.77, indicating strong bullish momentum as the stock continues its rebound from lower levels. Volume analysis supports this positive outlook, suggesting sustained buying interest. Additionally, the stock remains above the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which could serve as a key support level in the near term, reinforcing the potential for continued upward movement.

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Aurelia Metals Limited is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for an upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical indicator analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX: AMI) was last covered in a report dated '21 January 2022'. The Summary of recommendation is as follows:

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include updates on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the ASX All-Ordinaries Index and listed stocks’ prices:

Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured from either REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2:Individuals can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. Individuals can Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1.Individuals should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is March 31, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

AUD: Australian Dollar

RSI: Relative Strength Index

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.