Arvida Group Limited

This report is an updated version of the report published on the 16 May 2023 at 4:45 PM (GMT+12)

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals Insights

1.1: Company Overview

Arvida Group Limited (NZX: ARV) is one of the operators of ages care facilities and retirement vollages in New Zealand. The business offers retirement living accomodations and aged care services to nearly 6,750 residents across nearly 35 locations nationally. Kalkine’s Real Estate­ Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

Upcoming Events: On 12 May 2023, ARV announced that it is expected to release the full year results for the year ended 31 March 2023 on 30 May 2023 with briefing at 11:00 AM (NZT).

1.2: The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights, and Risks

1.3: Top 10 Shareholders

The top 10 shareholders together form ~32.83% of the total shareholding. Forsyth Barr Investment Management Limited and Milford Asset Management Ltd. hold maximum stakes in the company at ~12.39% and ~5.42%, respectively.

1.4: Key Metrics

In 1HFY23, the retirement living side of ADV’s business continued to exhibit favourable demand and rendered encouraging sales performance. The total gross value of all occupation rights sold advanced by 31% PcP to NZD 168.2mn, primarily driven by a 59% PcP increase in resales activity, which stood at NZD 93.5mn.

Section 2: Business Updates and Finanical Highlights

2.1: Business Updates

2.2: Financial Highlights

2.3: Historical Financial Trend

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

3.1: Key Risks

3.2: Company Outlook

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

4.1: Price Performance and Technical Summary

The stock price has plunged by ~4.42% in the last 3 months and over the last 6 months, stock price dipped by ~12.20%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of NZD 0.91 and NZD 1.64, respectively, and is currently trading close to the 52-week low levels. ARV was last covered in a report dated ’26 April 2023.’

4.2: Fundamental Valuation and Recommendation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 16 May 2023. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Disclaimer

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