Ampol Ltd

This report is an updated version of the report published on 25 September 2024 at 12:42 PM AEST.

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals Insights

1.1 Company Overview: Ampol Ltd is an integrated fuel and convenience retailer in Australia, operates a diverse portfolio that includes refining, fuel distribution, and convenience retailing. It also owns and operates the Lytton Refinery in Queensland, producing a range of fuels, including ultra-low sulfur diesel and gasoline. Through its service stations, Ampol offers convenience retail solutions, including food, beverages, and essential items, enhancing customer experience and engagement. Kalkine’s Resources Report covers the Investment Highlights, Management Insights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights, and Risks

1.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~36.69% of the total shareholding. AustralianSuper and State Street Global Advisors Australia Ltd hold maximum stakes in the company at 9.49% and 5.30%, respectively.

1.4 Key Metrics: Personal safety performance is on track for historical best levels in all parts of the business. Below is captured other metrics:

Section 2: Business Updates, Financial and Operational Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates:

2.2 Financial Highlights: Below mentioned are some key financial highlights:   

2.3 Historical Financial Trend

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary

The stock has shed 6.28% in the last 1 month, whereas over the last 6 months, the stock has corrected by 29.42%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 28.110 and AUD 42.350, respectively, and is currently trading close to its 52-week low level.  

 (Source: REFINITIV; Analysis by Kalkine Group)

4.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: P/E Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 25 September 2024. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.