Investors in US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at US$71.70 following the release of its first-quarter results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$9.4b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit US$0.49 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on US Foods Holding after the latest results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about US Foods Holding. View them for free.NYSE:USFD Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from US Foods Holding's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$39.8b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 46% to US$3.32. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$39.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.23 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on US Foods Holding's earnings potential following these results.

View our latest analysis for US Foods Holding

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$80.54, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on US Foods Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$90.00 and the most bearish at US$61.62 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await US Foods Holding shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that US Foods Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 60 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like US Foods Holding is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around US Foods Holding's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple US Foods Holding analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for US Foods Holding that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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