Group Consolidated Profit: EUR1,157 million. Return on Equity (excluding OCI recycling in Belarus): 9.4%. Core Group Consolidated Profit (excluding Russia and Belarus): EUR975 million. Net Interest Income: EUR4,155 million. Fee Income: EUR1,804 million, up 5% year-on-year. Operating Expenses (OpEx): Approximately EUR3.3 billion. Cost Income Ratio: 52.5%. Loans to Customers: Increased by 3% in 2024. Dividend Proposal: EUR1.1 per share. Provision for Russian Legal Proceedings: EUR840 million. Core Group CET1 Ratio (excluding Russia): 15.1%. Core Group NPE Ratio: 2.1% with a coverage ratio of 50.4%. Provisioning Ratio for Core Group: 27 basis points. Expected Loan Growth for 2025: 6% to 7%. Expected CET1 Ratio for 2025: 15.2%. Expected Profitability for 2025: Around 10%.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with RAIFY.

Release Date: February 04, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RAIFY) reported consolidated profits of EUR 975 million for the core group, excluding Russia and Belarus, which remained broadly stable year-on-year. The core group's return on equity, excluding Russia and Belarus, was between 13% and 15%, indicating a solid foundation for future growth. Fee income improved by 5% to EUR 1,804 million, reflecting strong performance across main product lines and key markets. The bank proposed a EUR 1.1 per share dividend, allowing shareholders to benefit from the core group's good performance. The CET1 ratio for the core group was stable at 15.1%, with expectations to maintain this level by the end of 2025.

Negative Points

Consolidated profit dropped significantly year-on-year due to major effects, including a court decision in Russia and the sale of Belarus, impacting profits by minus EUR 824 million. Litigation provisions in Poland continued to significantly impact core group profitability. The Russian court case resulted in a provision of EUR 840 million, reflecting potential damages, which could affect future financial stability. The sale of Belarus resulted in a negative deconsolidation effect of EUR 824 million, impacting equity. The bank faces ongoing challenges in reducing its Russian business, with legal proceedings and geopolitical tensions complicating the process.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide an update on the Bloomberg article that caused an 8% drop in stock price and any progress on exiting Russia? A: Hannes Moesenbacher, Chief Risk Officer, confirmed there was no breach of sanctions at Raiffeisen Bank Russia. Johann Strobl, CEO, mentioned that the court case involving Rasperia and Strabag limits their options for exiting Russia, but discussions with interested parties continue.

Story Continues

Q: Why is the net interest income (NII) guidance for 2025 higher than previously expected? A: Johann Strobl, CEO, explained that the improved NII guidance is due to a lower interest rate cycle, better loan growth assumptions in some countries, and less intense deposit price competition.

Q: What are the expectations for Polish FX charges in 2025 and beyond? A: Hannes Moesenbacher, Chief Risk Officer, stated that the active Swiss franc portfolio is sufficiently covered, and they expect lower provisioning needs for foreign currency mortgages in Poland. They anticipate the Polish FX charges to decrease significantly by 2026.

Q: Given the equity buffer in Russia, would you consider extracting dividends from Russian operations? A: Johann Strobl, CEO, acknowledged the equity buffer but expressed skepticism about successfully extracting dividends due to the current situation.

Q: What is the outlook for the Czech net interest income (NII) in 2025? A: Johann Strobl, CEO, expects a slight increase in Czech NII due to loan growth and positive FX impacts, despite some seasonal effects in the fourth quarter.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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