It's been a good week for Qualys, Inc. (NASDAQ:QLYS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.1% to US$133. Revenues were US$160m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.29, an impressive 26% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Qualys after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Qualys from 23 analysts is for revenues of US$652.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 8.9% to US$4.55 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$650.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.03 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

Check out our latest analysis for Qualys

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$136, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Qualys at US$160 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$90.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Qualys' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Qualys is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Qualys' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Qualys' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Qualys. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Qualys analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Qualys Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock,  here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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