JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that he sees an "extraordinary amount of complacency" in markets after investors clawed back their "Liberation Day" losses, emphasizing that the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation are still higher than people think.

"The market came down 10%, back up 10%," he said. "I think that's an extraordinary amount of complacency."

The boss of the nation's largest bank discussed everything from President Trump's tariffs and the state of the US economy to the future of the banking industry and his thoughts on crypto during JPMorgan's annual Investor Day event in Manhattan.

On one subject Dimon didn't give a firm answer: When he plans to retire as CEO.

When asked why he wouldn't stay another decade, he did remind investors he plans to remain as executive chairman of JPMorgan’s board for a time after stepping down from his CEO role.

"Obviously, it's up to the board. If I'm here for four more years and maybe two more, three as executive chair. That's a long time. That's like a lot of the present value of the world."JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, on "Mornings With Maria" with Maria Bartiromo at Fox Business Network on April 9. (Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images)·Noam Galai via Getty Images

The 69-year old first alluded that his time as boss of JPMorgan was winding down at last year's Investor Day event, when he acknowledged that he would likely be leaving his role in "less than five years." This past January he said his "base case" was to stay for another few years.

When one analyst pressed him for a more specific timetable, he said Monday that "the intent is the same as we said last year."

His comments were much more pointed when discussing macro economic topics. He argued that the full effect of the tariffs from the Trump administration is not yet apparent, and that even at their current levels the duties are "pretty extreme."

President Trump has paused many higher duties on countries around the world, including China, as his team negotiates trade deals, but a baseline reciprocal tariff of 10% remains in place across the board, in addition to duties that are specific to certain industries.

Trade has created a lot of risk, he said, and noted that the chance of inflation going up and stagflation are higher than people think. The odds of stagflation — which refers to a recession with higher inflation — "are probably two times" what the market expects, he added.

Geopolitical risk is also a concern. It "is very, very, very high. How it plays out over the next several years. We don't know," Dimon said.

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He was not the only big bank boss making new warnings Monday about the coming effects on tariffs.

Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser said in a blog post that "uncertainty remains."

"Companies are pausing decisions, delaying capex and holding off on hiring. Many are preparing for second- and third-order effects, from demand shocks to supplier uncertainty," she added.

She noted that "we are entering a new phase of globalization — one less defined by cooperation, and more by strategic self-interest. Long-held assumptions are being challenged, not just by tariff announcements but by a deeper confidence shock. The near-term impact is already being felt, and the long-term trajectory is being rewritten in real time."FILE PHOTO: Jane Fraser, CEO, Citi, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo·REUTERS / Reuters

JPMorgan did offer one sign that things may be slowing for some clients in the current quarter.

It told investors that for the second quarter it expects weaker investment banking fees "down mid teens plus or minus" compared to the second quarter of last year, according to co-CEO of the commercial and investment bank Troy Rohrbaugh. Investment bankers rely on companies making deals for their revenue.

Trading revenue is estimated to be in the "high single digits," Rohrbaugh added.

The bank did keep its full year forecast for its crucial lending revenue, net interest income. It is still projecting $90 billion, plus a potential extra $4.5 billion from trading, depending on market conditions.

"The outlook is probably slightly better than it was at first quarter earnings." CFO Jeremy Barnum said earlier in the day while also pointing out that the recent events have “slightly worsened the output, but not by enough to warrant changing guidance.”

Dimon also took time Monday to rail on the many bank rules set by Washington, saying broadly, "a lot of these calculations, as I mentioned before, are completely asinine."

The open question of who will lead JPMorgan after Dimon, whose held the role since 2006, has for years served as one of Wall Street’s great guessing games. It is also the "single biggest idiosyncratic risk factor" for JPMorgan's stock," Ebrahim Poonawala, a Bank of America analyst wrote last week.

Investors also had a chance to hear from Dimon’s top lieutenants, several of which are considered inside the bank as the most likely to succeed him one day.

"Our north star is generating alpha," said Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management. "That is all we do. All day long. We obsess about every single basis point."

The bank also increased its technology spending by $1 billion from last year to $18 billion.

“We are a growth franchise, and we're gaining share broadly across businesses. We're not big braggers, but we are proud of this performance," said Marianne Lake, CEO of JPMorgan’s sprawling consumer bank.

Excluding its home lending division, Lake said her division of the bank expects a 10% reduction in headcount over the next four and a half years in light of productivity improvements from AI and other tech.

David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.

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