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For investors considering whether ANZ Group Holdings at around A$37.92 still offers value, or if most of the opportunity is already reflected in the share price, this article focuses on what the numbers suggest about that question. The stock has recorded a 42.2% return over the last year and 4.1% year to date, with a 2.4% gain over the last 30 days and a 2.4% decline over the past week, indicating that sentiment and perceived risk can shift quickly. Recent coverage has focused on ANZ Group Holdings as one of the large Australian banks, with attention on how it is positioned within the sector and how investors are reacting to that positioning. This context helps explain why the share price moves have been closely watched by both income focused and growth focused investors. Simply Wall St currently gives ANZ Group Holdings a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The next sections will compare different valuation approaches and then conclude with a more rounded way to think about what the stock might be worth.

ANZ Group Holdings scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: ANZ Group Holdings Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit ANZ Group Holdings can generate above the return that shareholders require, then capitalises that surplus into an estimated value per share.

For ANZ, the starting point is book value of A$23.87 per share and an average return on equity of 10.27%. Analysts estimate stable earnings of A$2.64 per share, based on weighted future return on equity forecasts from 13 analysts, and a stable book value of A$25.74 per share, based on estimates from 10 analysts.

The model applies a cost of equity of A$2.00 per share. The difference between stable earnings and this cost is the excess return of A$0.64 per share, which represents value created over and above the required shareholder return. When these excess returns are projected and added to the current and stable book values, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of A$40.61 per share.

Compared with the current share price of around A$37.92, this implies the stock is about 6.6% undervalued, which is a relatively small gap.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

ANZ Group Holdings is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.ANZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ANZ Group Holdings.

Story Continues

Approach 2: ANZ Group Holdings Price vs Earnings

For a profitable bank like ANZ Group Holdings, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that support that price. It helps you see how much the market is willing to pay for each A$1 of earnings.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk profile. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower multiple.

ANZ currently trades on a P/E of 19.38x. That is close to the peer average of 19.18x and above the Banks industry average of 11.36x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for ANZ is 23.77x, which is its proprietary estimate of the P/E that fits ANZ’s earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it folds in those company specific factors rather than just lining ANZ up beside broad averages. With the Fair Ratio above the current 19.38x, this approach points to ANZ trading below that modelled “fair” level.

Result: UNDERVALUEDASX:ANZ P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 4 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ANZ Group Holdings Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach a clear story about ANZ Group Holdings to the numbers you care about, linking your view on its Suncorp integration, digital banking plans and payments joint venture review to specific forecasts for future revenue, earnings and margins, and then to a fair value that you can compare with today’s price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you set those assumptions yourself or explore versions created by other investors. This means you can quickly see how a fair value changes relative to the live share price and use that gap to help decide whether the current level looks appealing, stretched or somewhere in between.

Because Narratives update automatically when fresh data arrives, such as new analyst price targets around A$37.07, fair value estimates close to A$37.07 or A$43.00, or news on ANZ’s payments joint venture and technology spend, your story and the associated valuation move with the information rather than becoming stale.

For ANZ Group Holdings, one investor might build a Narrative that leans toward the higher A$43.00 value if they place more weight on the benefits of the Suncorp deal and digital platforms. Another might anchor closer to A$32.65 if they are more cautious about regulatory costs, competition and execution risks. Comparing those views side by side can help you decide which story feels more realistic for your own portfolio.

Do you think there's more to the story for ANZ Group Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!ASX:ANZ 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ANZ.AX.

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