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To understand whether Qantas Airways stock offers value at today's price, you first need a clear view of how its current market price compares with different measures of fair value.

The share price recently closed at A$9.18, with the stock up 7.4% over the past week and 9.2% over the past month, although the return over the last year is down 7.6% and the year to date return is down 12.5%. These figures can influence how investors think about both potential upside and risk.

Recent coverage has focused less on short term headlines and more on the broader investment case for Qantas Airways. This helps frame these mixed return figures in context. This article was triggered to provide ongoing coverage, so the focus is on how the current price stacks up against different valuation checks rather than on any single news event.

On Simply Wall St's internal checks, Qantas Airways records a valuation score of 5 out of 6. Each point reflects where the stock screens as undervalued against a specific metric. This makes it worth examining the full valuation score before turning to the detailed valuation methods and, later in the article, a broader way to think about what that valuation really means for you.

Find out why Qantas Airways's -7.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Qantas Airways Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model starts with estimates of the cash Qantas Airways could generate for shareholders in the future, then discounts those amounts back to today to get an estimated present value per share.

For Qantas Airways, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is A$180.6m. Analysts supply near term forecasts, including an A$607.9m Free Cash Flow estimate for the year to 30 June 2028. Beyond that point, Simply Wall St extends the projections out to ten years using its own assumptions to build a longer cash flow path.

Based on these projected cash flows, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of A$9.22 per share. Against the recent share price of A$9.18, this implies the stock trades at roughly a 0.5% discount to that DCF estimate, which is a very small gap.

Put simply, the DCF model suggests Qantas Airways stock is trading close to what those cash flow projections imply it is worth today.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Qantas Airways is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Story Continues

QAN Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Qantas Airways.

Approach 2: Qantas Airways Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a simple way to link what you pay for the stock to the earnings it currently generates. It helps you see how many years of current earnings the market is effectively pricing in.

What counts as a "normal" P/E depends on how the market views growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while lower growth expectations or higher perceived risk usually go with a lower P/E.

Qantas Airways currently trades on a P/E of 8.47x. That is close to the Airlines industry average of 8.91x and sits well below the broader peer average of 24.07x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 22.23x for Qantas Airways, which reflects factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.

The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for those company specific factors rather than assuming all airlines should trade on the same multiple. With the current P/E of 8.47x sitting well below the Fair Ratio of 22.23x, this check suggests the stock may be undervalued on an earnings basis.

Result: UNDERVALUEDASX:QAN P/E Ratio as at May 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Qantas Airways Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in: a simple tool on Simply Wall St's Community page that lets you connect your view of Qantas Airways with the numbers by telling a story about its competitive position, revenue, earnings and margins. It links that story to a financial forecast and a fair value estimate that you can then compare with the current share price to decide whether the stock looks attractive or expensive for you. The platform keeps that Narrative updated when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a Qantas Narrative around a strong moat, high margin loyalty earnings and post pandemic efficiency with a fair value close to A$11.05, while another might focus on fuel costs, regulation and competition and arrive at a fair value closer to A$8.88. This gives you a clear, side by side view of how different assumptions can lead to different conclusions.

For Qantas Airways however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Qantas Airways Narratives:

🐂 Qantas Airways Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish Narrative: A$9.33 per share

Implied discount to this fair value: about 1.6% below the Narrative estimate at the recent A$9.18 share price

Narrative revenue growth assumption: 4.71%

Emphasis on Qantas Airways as Australia’s flagship carrier with a strong moat supported by geographic isolation and a concentrated domestic airline market. Frequent Flyer loyalty program highlighted as a high margin, relatively stable earnings stream that diversifies the business beyond core passenger flights. Post COVID cost cuts, restructuring and fleet modernisation viewed as long lasting efficiency improvements that support the business over the long run.

🐻 Qantas Airways Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: A$8.88 per share

Implied premium to this fair value: about 3.4% above the Narrative estimate at the recent A$9.18 share price

Narrative revenue growth assumption: 4.76%

Qantas Airways seen as a stronger business than before COVID, but with earnings expected to settle closer to more normal levels after the post pandemic rebound. Domestic duopoly and the loyalty division still viewed as supportive, but with attention on how fuel costs, labour, regulation and reputational issues can influence margins. Investment case framed around a cyclical stock where valuation should account for earnings cycles, with DCF analysis used to test different demand and cost scenarios.

These two Narratives look at the same set of facts and reach slightly different fair values, which is exactly the point of using Narratives in the first place. You can see which assumptions feel closer to your own view, or build a version that matches your tolerance for risk and your expectations on earnings, margins and capital allocation. See what the community is saying about Qantas Airways

Do you think there's more to the story for Qantas Airways? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!ASX:QAN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include QAN.AX.

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