Shareholders might have noticed that Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX:FLT) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to AU$12.38 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of AU$0.49 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit AU$2.8b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Flight Centre Travel Group from 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$2.90b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 107% to AU$1.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$2.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.06 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$15.48. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Flight Centre Travel Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$20.75 and the most bearish at AU$12.95 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Flight Centre Travel Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 30% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Flight Centre Travel Group.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Flight Centre Travel Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Flight Centre Travel Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Flight Centre Travel Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Flight Centre Travel Group that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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