NZ Markets End Higher — Is This the Start of a New Trend?

Index Update: New Zealand markets closed higher on 10 June 2026, supported by improved global risk sentiment and steadier offshore equity performance. It seems that a mild technical rebound and short covering further supported the positive close. On the same day, S&P/NZX 50 Index witnessed a rise of 0.38% to end at 13,253.650, while S&P/NZX 20 Index rose by 0.43% to 7,512.010. S&P/NZX 10 Index increased by 0.47% to close at 12,859.520. Notably, S&P/NZX All Materials fell by 5.84%.   

Macro Update: As per FEU dated 29th May, the Reserve Bank expects inflation to remain elevated for slightly longer than projected in the Budget Update, rising to 4.2% in the June quarter and peaking at 4.3% in the September quarter. This reflects stronger assumptions around the persistence of oil prices, along with indirect effects on input costs and second-round impacts from global inflationary pressures.   

Market Movers: Among top gainers, WasteCo Group Limited (NZX: WCO) witnessed a rise of 14.29% to end at $0.008 per share. On the other hand, Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (NZX: CRP) declined by 7.58% to $0.061 per share.   

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar traded steady against major currencies on Wednesday as investors assessed fresh geopolitical tensions after the United States launched strikes on Iran following the reported downing of an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants also remained focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. In commodities, gold declined 1.98% to USD 4,200.80, silver fell 2.01% to USD 63.94, while copper edged up 0.10% to USD 13,580.10. Brent crude rose 1.80% to USD 93.08 amid renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions.  

Source: Charts by TradingView, Analysis: Kalkine Group  

The S&P/NZX 50 extended its rebound from the recent correction in the latest trading session, rising 49.57 points, or 0.38%, to finish at 13,107.72. From a technical standpoint, however, the index appears to be entering a consolidation phase, with price action forming within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This view is further supported by the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has returned to neutral territory, indicating that buying and selling momentum are currently balanced. 

Despite the recent recovery, the broader bearish structure that has persisted since the January 2026 peak of 13,757.71 remains valid, as the index continues to trade below the key resistance level at 13,324.82. Immediate support is located around 12,718.84, and a decisive break beneath this level could reinforce the continuation of the prevailing downtrend. On the other hand, a sustained move above 13,324.82, particularly if supported by stronger trading volume, would be needed to negate the current bearish bias and strengthen the case for a more substantial trend reversal.  

Our Stance: U.S. markets are currently being shaped by a mix of cautious risk sentiment and selective sector strength. Technology and AI-related stocks remain key drivers of volatility, with periodic profit-taking after strong rallies. Market direction is also heavily influenced by inflation expectations, interest rate outlook, and geopolitical developments, leading to frequent short-term swings rather than a clear sustained trend. New Zealand markets are currently being driven by a mix of global risk sentiment and domestic economic expectations. Overall, the NZX shows a defensive tilt, with periodic gains driven by yield-focused buying and short-term technical rebounds rather than strong broad-based growth momentum.